⚠️ There are clear signs that Bitcoin may already be at the top (or very close) of the extreme bear cycle — and this usually ends badly for those who insist on “just a little more.”
Why this hypothesis makes sense
Cycle of ~4 years (post-halving): historical peaks tend to appear 12–18 months after the halving.
2016 → peak in 2017 (≈17 months).
2020 → peak in 2021 (≈18 months).
2024 → Jan – Nov 2025 falls exactly within this window. October/November 2025 is the classic “sweet spot” for cycle exhaustion.
End-of-cycle behavior: euphoria, high leverage, “any coin goes up”, promises of infinite altseason, and chronic positive funding. It was like this before 2018 and 2022.
What happened in other times (numbers that hurt)
2017 → 2018 (brutal bear):
BTC: -84% (≈US$ 20k → ≈US$ 3k).
ETH: -94%.
Hundreds of alts: -90% to -99%.
Many people “waited for the altseason” and vanished from the market.
2021 → 2022 (chain destruction):
BTC: -77% (≈US$ 69k → ≈US$ 15.5k).
ETH: -83%.
Several alts: -90% to -99%; some projects went to zero (bankruptcies, collapses, frauds).
Those who bought “at the top” were stuck for years or zeroed out their accounts.
How the peak usually forms (and the fall begins)
False breakout of the maximum → euphoria → violent reversal (–20% to –30% in a few days).
Cascade of liquidations: the market was leveraged; stops trigger; the price drops in steps.
Bleeding in alts: first they hold, then they collapse (–50% in weeks, –80% to –95% in the following months).
Macro narrative shift: inflation data, interest rates, strong dollar, regulation/legal actions, or failures of major players.
Flow exhaustion: ETFs/spot stop coming in strong; OI and funding remain high → classic distribution signal.