Dear cryptocurrency friends, I reminded those who haven't entered the market yet yesterday that now is not the right time to enter. Judging from the actual market conditions, the index continues to decline as expected, but my view remains unchanged—it's still not the time to invest.
On a weekly basis, a normal correction should have reached the blue zone, but I'm hoping to see it reach the purple zone (don't ask why it's purple; I simply prefer this color!). Assuming the broader trend remains intact, a deeper correction often indicates greater upward momentum. Looking at funding rates, bullish sentiment currently dominates the market, suggesting the correction isn't complete and market sentiment hasn't fully released. It's not advisable to rush into the market in the short term.
Judging from the distribution of chips, ETH's recent intensive trading area is concentrated around 3731. This range is a key support. As long as the market does not fall below this range, the short-term trend is not bad, and the bull market pattern still has a basis for continuation.
At the macro level, news of a US interest rate cut continues to ferment, with market discussion focusing on the magnitude (25 basis points or 50 basis points) and the number of cuts (one or two this year). Before definitive confirmation is released, institutional investors are likely to capitalize on this hot topic and speculate. As to whether the market rally will end after the announcement, or usher in a new, stronger narrative, I cannot predict. However, regardless of how the macro narrative evolves, we shouldn't blindly speculate. We should plan ahead and take appropriate action when the market moves in our expected direction, avoiding unprepared situations.
While I have expectations for the depth of the pullback, this doesn't mean I'll opt for short-term trading. Having planned to observe the weekly trend, I must strictly adhere to it. A trader's greatest enemy is never the market, but their own heart. The ability to restrain the urge for short-term trading and stick to established strategies is the key to long-term market survival. After all, restraining desires and adhering to plans are the foundation of survival in trading.
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