$ETH recently broke through 4700 USD, sparking heated discussions in the market. Is this rebound 'FOMO extreme' or the 'starting point of a bull market'? We analyze 6 valuation models + analyst opinions to see if ETH really has a chance to hit 10,000 USD.

1️⃣ ETH/BTC Ratio Model: Undervalued?

Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio is 0.037, far below the 5-year average of 0.0518.

If #BTC rises to 120,000 USD

→ ETH valuation ≈ 6200 USD

If it returns to the bull market peak ratio (0.06–0.08)

→ ETH ≈ 7200–9600 USD

📉 ETH is currently relatively cheap; it depends on whether BTC continues to rise.

2️⃣ #ETF + Institutional Lockup Model: Supply and Demand Changes?

Currently, ETFs + institutions lock up about 8% of ETH.

Assuming the lock-up rate rises to 15–20%

→ Mechanical supply and demand changes support ETH rising to 5000–6000 USD or even higher

🎯 ETFs may be the main driver for ETH's rise in 2025.

3️⃣ Network Activity Model: Metcalfe's Law

Daily Active Addresses (DAA) ≈ 970,000

If it rises to 1,100,000 → ETH ≈ 5800 USD

If it rises to 1,300,000 → ETH ≈ 8000 USD

🌐 The more active the network, the greater the price potential.

4️⃣ NVT Model: Undervalued Zone?

Current NVT is 37, relatively low.

6-month forecast: 6000–9000 USD

12-month forecast: 7400–11600 USD

📊 Reflects that ETH may still be in a 'value pit'.

5️⃣ On-chain Cash Flow Model: Profit Logic

ETH revenue comes from Gas + MEV, VanEck predicts:

2025 → 6000 USD

2030 → 11,800 USD

💸 With the support of ETFs, the 'profit protocol' logic is stronger.

6️⃣ Technical Analysis Model: Trend Still Strong

ETH structure shows higher highs and higher lows

→ Clear bullish trend

Just broke through resistance, next target:

→ 5600 → 6000 USD

📈 Structure is intact; the market is not over yet.

7️⃣ Analyst Opinions Overview

VirtualBacon: Base target 6000–7000, optimistic view 10,000

Arthur Hayes: Expecting 10,000

Tom Lee: Estimated 7000–15000

Bankless: AI + Crypto driving, estimated up to 15,000

📌 While there are differences, most believe ETH still has upward potential.

✅ Summary (not investment advice)

ETH currently has support from technical patterns, on-chain data, and capital flow, showing upward momentum in the short term.