$KERNEL consolidates around $0.206 – accumulation phase or start of a deeper correction?

1) Current Market Situation – 15.08.2025

$KERNEL is holding near $0.2058 after bouncing from the morning lows of $0.1868. Intraday charts show a clear calm phase following the previous upward movement, suggesting the market is currently in a “waiting for a trigger” mode – traders are anticipating a decisive directional signal.

1H Timeframe

  • RSI (~52) – Indicates neutral sentiment; neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage at the moment.

  • MACD – Signal lines are converging, and the histogram is flat – a typical setup during accumulation or sideways movement.

  • Volume – Moderate, without significant spikes, which often precedes stronger moves either way.

  • Fibonacci (swing: $0.1868 → $0.2214):

    • 38.2% – $0.2037 – first barrier for buyers; a breakout above could trigger a rapid upward move.

    • 50.0% – $0.2041 – equilibrium point; holding above it often signals a short-term bullish bias.

    • 61.8% – $0.2044 – the golden level; defending it strengthens the bullish scenario.

4H Timeframe

  • Price remains above $0.1868, showing solid technical support.

  • RSI (~55) – Slight advantage for buyers, but without strong momentum.

  • MACD – In the positive zone, but the histogram is shrinking – a sign the market may consolidate a bit longer before the next big move.

  • The same Fibonacci levels from the 1H chart are confirmed here, adding to their importance.

2) Yesterday’s Recap – 14.08.2025

Thursday brought a rally in KERNEL from $0.20 to $0.2214, an increase of about +10% in a single day. The move was supported by improved sentiment in the altcoin market and increased activity in the restaking sector.

1H Timeframe

  • RSI stayed mostly between 55–60, showing buyer dominance.

  • MACD remained in the positive zone but started to flatten near the $0.2214 resistance, hinting at a possible slowdown.

  • Volume increased during breakouts and declined during pullbacks – typical of a healthy bullish trend.

4H Timeframe

  • Resistance at $0.2214 was confirmed as a key barrier.

  • Support at $0.205–0.206 held firm.

  • RSI (~58) still indicated bullish momentum, while MACD maintained a positive structure.

3) Volume Analysis

Current daily volume ranges between $2.6M and $4.5M

A notable pattern is the appearance of volume spikes at local tops, followed by rapid drops in activity – a sign of profit-taking by short-term traders and position building by long-term investors. The current lower volume during consolidation is a healthy sign – the market is gathering energy for the next move.

4) Forecast

Bullish scenario:

Holding above $0.2041 and breaking $0.2044 with rising volume could trigger a rally toward $0.2214. A breakout there might extend gains to $0.23–$0.24.

Bearish scenario:

Breaking below $0.2041 with strong selling volume could lead to a retest of $0.19–$0.1868. A break below that opens the door to $0.18.

5) LONG Setup

  • Entry: 1H candle close above $0.2041

  • Stop Loss: $0.20

  • TP1: $0.2214

  • TP2: $0.23

  • TP3: $0.24
    Comment: Preferably confirmed by volume clearly above the 7-day average and RSI >55.

6) SHORT Setup

  • Entry: 1H candle close below $0.2041

  • Stop Loss: $0.207

  • TP1: $0.195

  • TP2: $0.19

  • TP3: $0.18
    Comment: Consider only if accompanied by increased selling volume and RSI <45.

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