📌 Core Conclusion
> 60% probability of breaking $5,000! But must hold $4,400 bullish defense line, central pivot $4,631 determines bull or bear (8.15-8.30)
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🌐 1. Current Battle Situation
- Price: $4,605 (PPI bearish decline ongoing)
- Lifeline: $4,631 (daily central strong-weak boundary)
- Fortress of Attack and Defense:
🛡️ Support: $4,500 → $4,400 (break then crash)
💥 Resistance: $4,720 → $4,870 (break then charge towards $5K)
⚡ 2. Long and Short Nuclear Bomb List
Bullish ammunition
✅ BlackRock increases holding by $500 million ETH
✅ Exchange ETH stock at 9-year low
✅ ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks yearly line bullish signal
Short Signal
💣 Federal Reserve delay in interest rate cut risk
💣 $4800-$5000 options wall pressing down
🚀 3. 15-Day Script Simulation
📍 Stage 1 (8.15-20) Fluctuation Accumulation
- Central $4,500-$4,720 fluctuation, closely watch $4,631 contest
- 8/19 Federal Reserve minutes set short-term direction
📍 Stage 2 (8.21-25) Showdown Moment
- 🟢 Breakthrough $4,870 → Rush straight to $5,000 (third buy confirmation)
- 🔴 Break below $4,500 → Flash crash to $4,400 (downward extension)
📍 Stage 3 (8.26-30) Monthly Line Sprint
- $5,000 Assault! Breakout or “needle top” (beware of $5,400 options barrier)
> 📊 Probability Pool:
> - 🚀 Break above $5K → 60% (requires MACD golden cross + on-chain accumulation)
> - ⚖️ Fluctuation $4.4K-$4.8K → 30%
> - 💥 Crash to $4K → 10% (black swan trigger)
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💰 4. Retail Investor Combat Manual
- Try Long: Place order near $4,450 (stop loss at $4,400❗)
- Breakout Follow: Daily close above $4,870 to chase (target $5,000)
- Escape Point: $4,700 stagnation + top pattern → short position targeting
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🔍 5. Market Alert
- ✅ Long Signal: 4-hour bottom pattern + net outflow from exchanges
- ❌ Short Signal: Daily top pattern + MACD divergence
