If you've been paying attention to the Ethereum market, you must feel this wave of optimism. Take the platform Polymarket for example; traders there believe there's a 64% chance that Ethereum will reach $5,000 before August 31, and 90% are betting it can hit $4,800. More importantly, 87% believe it will definitely set a new historical high before the end of the month. This is not just random guessing; it's the real sentiment in the market driving it, and with everyone thinking this way, it's naturally easier for the market to move upward.
So what exactly is driving Ethereum's rise now? Although its price is currently below $4,600 and it's still digesting the previous wave of unexpectedly high PPI data (which reflects price increases and can cause market anxiety if too high), the bullish atmosphere hasn't diminished at all. On one hand, the technical momentum is still there, and on the other hand, institutions are also buying, coupled with expectations of possible easing in macro policies, all of which provide solid support for Ethereum.
What might Ethereum's path look like next? $4,631 is a very critical threshold. Analysts say that if it can regain this price level, it is very likely to reach new highs quickly; if not, it may first drop to the $4,000 to $4,400 range, adjust a bit, and then climb back up. Some also remind that a pullback to $4,080 to $4,380 is actually healthy, as it builds strength.
Why is this time point particularly important? Although market predictions are not always accurate, they can reflect the collective thoughts of everyone. Currently, the odds for a new high are almost 9 to 1, which is quite rare. Moreover, the overall environment may help: if the central bank's policies are a bit more lenient, risky assets like Ethereum may become more sought after. Additionally, institutional money is also flowing back, with NFT transactions, related ETF products, and those smart funds (large funds that know the market) potentially pushing Ethereum past $5,000.
So the key is whether the range of $4,600 to $4,631 can hold. If it holds, it might really break through; if it doesn't, there may be a short-term pullback, but afterwards, it will likely continue to rise. Many people in the market are confident that Ethereum can touch $5,000 before the end of August; it all depends on whether this critical price level holds up.