$XLM consolidates around $0.429 — Will the bulls retest $0.44, or will consolidation continue?

1) Current Market Situation – 15.08.2025

Currently, $XLM (Stellar) is trading near $0.4288, holding in the mid-range of the consolidation zone formed in recent sessions between $0.418 and $0.44. The market appears to be waiting for an impulse — either from macroeconomic data or from large players (whales) visible in the order books.

1H Timeframe

  • RSI (~52) – neutral, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, confirming the short-term balance.

  • MACD – signal lines are very close together, histogram almost flat, indicating limited volatility and a lack of directional momentum.

  • Moving Averages (EMA 50 & 200) – price is positioned between both averages, reflecting the suspended state between short- and mid-term trends.

  • Fibonacci (swing: $0.42 → $0.44):

    • 38.2% – $0.432 – first significant resistance; a breakout above this level on increased volume could trigger a mini-rally.

    • 50% – $0.434 – equilibrium level where a brief supply-demand battle often occurs.

    • 61.8% – $0.436 – the classic “golden level”; breaking above could significantly increase the odds of an attack on $0.44.

4H Timeframe

  • RSI (~56) – slight advantage for buyers, but no clear euphoria signal.

  • MACD – still positive, but histogram is shrinking, suggesting a possible pause after the earlier bounce from $0.418.

  • EMA 200 – still below price, giving the bulls a mid-term advantage.

  • Fibonacci levels confirm the same zones as on 1H — the more timeframes respect them, the stronger they become.

2) Yesterday’s Recap – 14.08.2025

Yesterday, $XLM tested the $0.44 area before gradual profit-taking brought the price back down to around $0.428–$0.43. The move was moderate but technically important — confirming that $0.44 remains a short-term barrier.

1H Timeframe

  • RSI in the 55–60 range — indicating buyers had the upper hand for most of the day.

  • MACD positive but showing signs of fading momentum after reaching a local high.

  • Volume spiked during the breakout, then decreased during the pullback — a classic “push and fade” pattern.

4H Timeframe

  • Support formed in the $0.428–$0.43 area held firmly.

  • RSI (~57) stayed in mild overbought territory, showing the market was more inclined to buy than sell.

  • MACD remained in positive territory, though histogram growth slowed considerably.

3) Volume Analysis

Looking at the last 48 hours of volume:

  • $0.44–$0.45 zone — noticeable surge in activity, indicating stronger seller presence defending this resistance.

  • $0.418–$0.42 zone — relatively high volume on bounces, suggesting active buying interest in this support zone.

  • Recent volume bars are smaller than the 7-day average, signaling a lack of strong market impulse.

4) Outlook

Bullish scenario:

  • Holding $0.428 and breaking through $0.432–$0.434 could open the path toward $0.44, and if broken, $0.45–$0.46.

  • Increasing volume during such a move will be the key confirmation.

Bearish scenario:

  • Dropping below $0.418 with confirming sell volume could lead to a test of $0.41, or even $0.40.

5) LONG Scenario

  • Entry: 1H candle close above $0.432

  • Stop Loss: $0.427

  • TP1: $0.44

  • TP2: $0.45

  • TP3: $0.46
    Recommendation: This scenario is preferred if breakout volume is significantly higher than the 7-day average and RSI on 1H is above 55. Confirmation of bullish strength could result in a swift move toward $0.44 and higher.

6) SHORT Scenario

  • Entry: 1H candle close below $0.418

  • Stop Loss: $0.423

  • TP1: $0.415

  • TP2: $0.412

  • TP3: $0.41
    Recommendation: Consider only with increased sell volume and RSI on 1H below 45. Without volume confirmation, a drop may turn into a false breakout.

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