In July, U.S. PPI data once again exploded, putting pressure on the global crypto market in an instant. Last night, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeted, and mainstream altcoins also experienced 'waterfall-style washouts'. Statistics show that in the past 24 hours, a total of 205,590 investors were liquidated globally, with a total amount reaching $961 million, and many long positions were liquidated. Market sentiment suddenly became tense, and many people lamented - next time, it's better to take profits in batches and secure the gains.

High leverage is a double-edged sword; the bull market also hides traps.

Historically, three legendary traders made astonishing profits at the peak of a bull market, but ultimately lost both their capital and profits due to high leverage and frequent rolling over. This round of volatility is intense, and a small mistake could lead to a total loss. Therefore, preserving capital is more important than chasing highs; missing one wave is not terrible, surviving is key to the next opportunity.

Why the sudden plummet? Is the bull market over?

This round of decline has made those chasing higher prices worry about the end of the bull market, while bears feel that the sharp drop has just begun. However, from the weekly trend perspective, the bullish pattern remains solid:

  • Ethereum has just broken through a multi-year pressure zone, and the upward cycle has just begun.

  • Trading volume and candlestick structure still favor the bulls.

  • Last night's sharp drop seemed more like a washout by the main force, clearing out indecisive holdings and high-leverage short positions to pave the way for the next wave of surge.

How to view the market next? The three major signals are key.

  1. Declining with reduced volume and no consecutive sharp drops → may be a washout behavior.

  2. Key support not broken and a rebound pattern appears → the pullback may have ended.

  3. Altcoins fall but do not rise → funds are increasingly concentrated in mainstream coins, and weak projects may be eliminated.

Short-term oscillation is not to be feared; the main trend of the bull market has not changed.

BTC trend observation

Currently, Bitcoin is in the adjustment phase at the $117,400 - $119,200 range.

Key support: $117,500, an oversold rebound level.

Death line: $116,000, once the daily line breaks below this level, it turns bearish.

Resistance zone: $122,000; if it cannot break through for a long time and forms lower highs, the bears will gain an advantage.

Short-term key points:

  1. $119,300 resistance break failed → declined.

  2. Support at $118,500 and $117,500 may allow for a rebound, but if broken, it could drop to $115,000.

  3. The daily trendline support is at $114,988 - $115,988, valid this week. The support line rises over time, potentially approaching last night's low of $117,000, forming a point for liquidations on both sides.

  4. The phase bottom is at $111,888 - $112,888.

ETH short-term structure

Ethereum has potential for a short-term rebound after breaking down through the acceleration channel and the EMA 12-day moving average on the 1-hour timeframe:

  • Rebound targets: $4666 / $4688 / $4712 / $4770.

  • Although the 8-hour MACD has a death cross, it is still far from the zero axis, leaving room for variability. The 4-hour MACD may show a stop-loss signal, thus avoiding a deep drop to $4412.

  • If the rebound approaches the previous high, take profits; if it breaks through, look towards the $4989 range; if it fails, it may go through another round of secondary pullback before continuing upward.

The funding remains bullish: there is continuous bottom-fishing capital entering the market, and many investors are adding positions at this level; $5xxx for Ethereum may just be a matter of time.

Altcoin strategy

Currently, the vast majority of altcoins, even if they rebound, are still oscillating at low levels:

  1. High-quality projects: entering the third phase of the main upward trend, with both volume and price rising, high potential for explosive growth.

  2. Weak projects: only slowly following the market, ending after random distributions at high levels.

For example, OKB surged 200% driven by the favorable reduction in supply, with a breakthrough at $130 being a typical high-quality coin performance.

Operational advice:

  • Select valuable targets, enter the market in batches, and hold until the end of the bull market for a one-time profit-taking.

  • There is no need to pursue profits from every fluctuation; capturing the larger segments is key.

Individual hot projects

  • AOL: The news of USD1 being issued on the Sol chain stimulated the Wlfi ecosystem, and funds continue to accumulate. Due to the meme nature, sentiment is highly volatile, and there has been a noticeable short-term surge. However, currently, aside from USD1 going on-chain, there is a lack of other substantial positive news, so pay attention to the pullback after the news materializes.

  • SOL: Futu has launched retail trading services for Solana. Following the founder's announcement of entering the virtual asset space in July, the business was implemented in August, which may attract more funds and drive up the entire ecosystem and SOL price.

This round of pullback seems more like a washout rather than the end of the bull market.

  • Bitcoin's $116,000 is the trend death line.

  • Ethereum's funding remains strong; $5000 is not a dream.

  • The differentiation of altcoins will intensify, and only high-quality projects have the opportunity for sustained upward movement.

Short-term oscillation is a necessary process in a bull market; panic selling often marks the beginning of missing the opportunity. Patience, position management, and value selection are key to ultimately winning.