🔍 Current situation
- Price: Entered the Order Block (OB) zone at $25,253, where the first bearish reaction is observed (wick on the candle).
- Technical factors:
- Impulsive growth → High probability of correction to close the FVG (Fair Value Gap) below.
- Additional OB below the current price → Additional magnet for decline.
- Levels:
- Take profit: $23,567 (liquidity zone + FVG).
- Stop-loss: $26,055 (breaking this zone will cancel the bearish scenario).
📉 Short justification
1. Order Block (OB) as resistance
- Price tests a historical zone where major players previously took profits → high probability of a pullback.
2. FVG below acts as a magnet
- Unfilled gap around $23,500–$23,800 attracts price to 'close' the inefficiency.
3. Risk management
- RR 1:2 – acceptable ratio.
- Move to breakeven (BE) upon reaching 1R to minimize losses.
💡 Recommendations
- Confirmation of weakness: Waiting for the candle to close below $25,000 for confidence in the continuation of the downward movement.
- Alternative entry: If the price bounces back to $25,800–$26,000, consider an additional short with a stop above $26,300.
- Global context:
- AVAX correlates with BTC. If Bitcoin updates its ATH, shorting may be risky.
- If BTC falls below $115K, the target of $23,567 becomes more likely.
📌 Conclusion
Short AVAX/USDT 20x justified:
✅ Technically — OB zone + FVG.
✅ Risk management — clear take and stop levels.
⚠️ Main risk — unexpected rise of BTC/alt season.
Act disciplined!
