From the current four-hour chart, ETH/USDT is in a critical turning window. The current price of 4617.51 USD is running just above the BBI indicator (4595.58) and is above the Bollinger middle band (4567.74), indicating that short-term bulls still hold an advantage. However, the pressure from the upper band at 4900.96 is close at hand, and the market is about to face a directional choice.

Key indicators interpretation:

Bollinger band contraction signal: The distance between the upper band at 4900.96 and the lower band at 4234.52 is narrowing, indicating that volatility is decreasing, suggesting an imminent breakout market.

BBI bull-bear dividing line: Current price is stable above 4595, but has not effectively broken through the previous high of 4621, need to monitor the offensive and defensive situation at this position.

Volume-price coordination: A 1.59% increase accompanied by a 1.89% fluctuation shows fierce competition between bulls and bears but has not formed a one-sided advantage.

Today's trend analysis:

Upside Scenario (Probability 45%):

If it breaks the previous high of 4621 and stabilizes at 4650, it will test the psychological level of 4700.

Key resistance levels: 4750 (previous high neckline), 4900.96 (Bollinger upper band).

Trigger condition: Volume continues to increase + US stock market opens in conjunction.

Downside Scenario (Probability 35%):

If it loses the BBI (4595), it may pull back to the Bollinger middle band at 4567.

Key support: 4535 (this morning's low), 4430 (August 14 low).

Risk point: A drop below 4500 may trigger a long squeeze.

Oscillation Scenario (Probability 20%):

Maintain oscillation in the range of 4567-4650.

Waiting for larger catalysts (such as the evening US stock market trend).

Operational suggestion:

Aggressive strategy:

Current price 4617, try a small long position, stop loss at 4580, target 4700.

If it breaks 4650, you can add to your position, but be cautious of the strong resistance at 4900.

Conservative strategy:

Wait for a pullback near 4567 to position long, stop loss at 4530.

Or break 4650 and then pull back to stabilize at 4620 before entering.

Risk warning:

Focus on the US stock market opening at 10 AM Eastern Time.

Beware of false breakout traps near the upper band of 4900.

Current volatility (1.89%) is below the recent average, beware of sudden fluctuations and pay attention to my guidance.