Viewforstar #40 - avoid long, only short altcoin
$BTCDOM
1. General situation
• BTC.D: 4,010 (-0.58%) → Dominance continues to decrease slightly, confirming that the cash flow has not yet returned strongly to BTC, but the selling pressure on altcoins still exists due to the adjustment in BTC price.
• BTC: 118,119 (-4.65%) → Sharp decline, selling pressure across the market.
• ETH: 4,560 (-3.19%) → Decreased less than BTC, but still within the adjustment trend.
• Mid-cap & low-cap altcoins: Deep decline of 6-9% (#ENS, #API3, #COMP, #HIFI…) → this is a stronger decline than BTC, indicating a risk-off sentiment (liquidating alt positions).
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2. Cash flow & Volume
• Many altcoins decreased by 7-9% in 24h with volume not exploding ⇒ panic selling is happening but capitulation volume is not present, meaning there could be one more drop before a bounce.
• BTC.D decreased but BTC price also dropped sharply ⇒ capital is withdrawing from the market, not rotating into altcoins.
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3. Elliott Wave & scenario
• BTC.D is in a small corrective wave (1H, 4H) but still within a larger downtrend (1D, 3D) → after the correction, BTC.D will continue to decrease, but it has not yet entered that phase.
• BTC is in a small wave 3 down in the 4H frame, no signs of forming a short-term bottom yet.
4. Strategy
• Short term:
• Avoid going long on altcoins at this time because BTC has not formed a bottom and BTC.D may bounce back short-term.
• If trading intraday → only short when there is a technical bounce to the resistance area.
• Monitor key price areas:
• BTC support at 116k - 115k.
• BTC.D resistance at 4,078 - 4,225.
• Reversal signal: Only consider going long on altcoins when BTC holds above 116k and BTC.D breaks support at 3.90.
