Is the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectation of 95.8% fuel or trap?
Unemployment claims 226,000 (expected 228,000): superficially good for risk assets → but rate cut expectations have been overshot
Main force takes advantage of good news to sell PPI year-on-year 2.3% (previous value 2.5%): inflation cools down → but core PPI remains sticky
Federal Reserve's difficulty in loosening conclusions: data combination = 'dead cat bounce' market fuel! Retail investors chasing long positions is sending heads to the chain + market's deadly signal
4725 becomes the 'coffin board': Market shows an order of 284.9 ETH at 4725.01 pressing down, and has been hit three times at high points
Whales secretly offloading: At 20:30, immediately after data release, a certain address recharged 8,200 ETH to Binance
Large transactions concentrated at $4,200-$4,250, weak support: Real buying pressure focused at $4,550
Tonight's ETH trend prediction: first lure longs then smash the market, key level to watch is 4550!
Three strategies
A. Aggressive short (suitable for experienced contract traders)
Entry: Short above the current price of $4,700
Target 1: $4,600 (data sentiment fades) Target 2: $4,550 (breaks through long stop-loss) Stop-loss: $4,755 (breakthrough of previous high pressure fails)
B. Spot Hunter (waiting for panic bottom-fishing)
Order 1: $4,550 (receiving institutional chips)
Order 2: $4,488 (stop-loss order with blood chips)
Discipline: increase position by 10% for every $50 drop, total position not exceeding 50%
C. Hedge arbitrage (steady as an old dog)
Spot ETH: retain base position
Buy Put options: strike price $4,500, duration 3 days (cost ≈ 1.5% of spot)
Lock in profits to guard against black swans
Follow the Monologue Homepage$ETH
! It’s a fierce tiger retracting its claws in the forest, welcome to follow the monologue when it sees blood and seals the throat
