In recent days, the entire cryptocurrency market has welcomed a wave of enthusiasm.
Cardano (ADA) is directly challenging the $1 mark, with unstoppable bullish momentum; Popcat is soaring 13% after holding key support; the memecoin sector is also experiencing an explosion; while BTC has broken historical highs, its upward momentum seems somewhat exhausted……
The overall market sentiment is like a volcanic eruption, with every rise accompanied by a frenzy of capital inflow, forcing shorts to cover and bulls to soar. 📈 For investors, this is both an opportunity and a challenge—capturing the trend is the only way to make money in this market wave.
Next, let's interpret the latest dynamics of various coins one by one to see who the 'true hero' of this market wave is and who may face pullback risks.
Cardano (ADA): Aiming for the $1 mark.
Cardano has performed brightly recently, with prices starting from $0.80, and a new round of increases brings ADA closer to the $1 mark.
According to Kraken data, ADA is currently priced above $0.950 and the 100-hour simple moving average, forming a bullish trend line on the hourly chart, with support at $0.935.
Short-term resistance levels: $0.988 → $1.00 → $1.02
Support levels: $0.960 → $0.935 → $0.880
After breaking through the psychological barrier of $1, there is potential to further challenge the $1.15 or even $1.20 area. On-chain data shows that the MVRV Z-score has risen to 0.445, and the stock-to-flow ratio has surged significantly, indicating limited selling pressure. The continuous rise of the scarcity indicator reflects that buyers may have to pay higher prices to accumulate in this market environment. Therefore, if demand continues to rise, the current supply-demand pattern may support ongoing upward potential.
Additionally, the ADA trust established by Grayscale has triggered an ETF craze, increasing institutional buying interest due to expectations for a potential spot ETF.
In the short term, bulls hold the advantage. Data on short liquidations shows that one-day short losses exceeded $832,000, while longs only lost $439,000; the short squeeze effect may further push up ADA. 📊
Overall, combining technical aspects and on-chain data, ADA is still expected to continue its upward momentum in the short term and is a hot target in the current altcoin market.
Popcat (POPCAT): The rebound star of memecoins.
In the memecoin sector, Popcat has also performed outstandingly. After holding the $0.30 support, the price surged 13.89% to $0.346, and market sentiment has clearly improved. In the past seven days, the seller-dominated market was reversed by buyers, with spot trading data showing buying volume of 4.58 million and selling volume of 3.97 million. Therefore, the market Delta value for memecoin is 607,000, clearly indicating that it is actively accumulating.
Exchanges have also noticed similar trends, with net flow remaining negative for five consecutive days. According to CoinGlass data, as of now, Fartcoin has seen a net outflow of approximately $100,000. Generally, net outflow means that outflows from the exchange exceed inflows.
From historical experience, changes in the power of exchanges often bring upward price pressure.
The derivatives market is also active: open interest (OI) rose by 9.14%, trading volume increased by 2.08%, and the futures long-short ratio flipped to 1.0113, with longs accounting for 68% and shorts 31%. These indicators all suggest that bullish sentiment is strengthening, and there may be continued challenges to the $0.40 resistance level in the short term.
However, short-term trading still needs to pay attention to selling risks. If sellers regain control of the market, Popcat may fall back to the $0.285 support area. Therefore, in short-term operations, it is recommended to focus on key support and resistance levels to seize buying opportunities on pullbacks 💡.
🚨 Bitcoin options traders don't seem worried about volatility? On the contrary, it may hide risks!
Recently, the volatility expectations in the Bitcoin options market are very low. At first glance, it seems stable, but historical experience tells us: low volatility often precedes major movements 😳.
ATM IV (the implied volatility of at-the-money options) has been dropping recently, indicating that traders do not expect Bitcoin to see major fluctuations in the short term.
In simple terms, everyone thinks Bitcoin is quite stable in the short term. However, Glassnode reminds us: every time during such 'calm periods' when 'everyone is not anxious', the market often suddenly moves💥. For example, when volatility was low in 2023, a bull market came.
Not only is ATM IV (the implied volatility of at-the-money options) recently dropping, but Deribit's DVOL index (tracking the 30-day volatility of various options) has also fallen to historical lows. This means: the market is a bit complacent, with very little demand for hedging volatility. The result? Once there's major news or a catalyst, prices may soar or plummet uncontrollably ⚡️.
Now that Bitcoin has broken new highs, the upward momentum seems a bit weak. Low volatility means the market is too quiet, and risks may suddenly explode. Pullback or reversal? Don’t rush to guess 🤷♂️; being prepared for risk is the most important.
Comprehensive market observation: Both altcoins and blue-chip chains present opportunities.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown significant sector differentiation:
Blue-chip coins: BTC progresses steadily, but momentum is weak; low volatility in options indicates potential risks 😳. After breaking new highs, caution against pullbacks or significant volatility is still needed ⚡️.
Altcoins: ADA, Popcat, etc., show strong upward potential after breaking key resistance levels.
Capital flows: influx of open interest in derivatives, short liquidations, and an increase in the proportion of longs all provide support for the rise.
For investors, short-term strategies can refer to:
BTC: Watch the $124,000 resistance level, do not blindly chase highs.
ADA: Focus on the psychological barrier of $1 and the potential targets of $1.02-$1.15.
Popcat: A pullback to support can be a good buying opportunity; watch for breakout signals at $0.40.
🔥 Overall, market enthusiasm remains high, but short-term volatility risks cannot be ignored. Reasonable position allocation, attention to trend lines and capital flows will be key to seizing market opportunities.
💡 Investment summary:
BTC remains the market bellwether, but momentum may weaken; ADA is supported by technical factors and the ETF craze, with significant upward space in the short term; the memecoin sector represented by Popcat is led by funds and sentiment, showing clear short-term opportunities. Capturing the trend and controlling risk are essential to standing firm in this multi-coin market.
Many understand the trend, but few follow the right rhythm.
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In the current market environment, short-term trading is indeed very necessary. If one keeps waiting for spot prices to rebound, they may feel the agony of time. I have also been fully engaged in secondary short trades and primary small cap operations recently, and the gains have been good. Friends who want to catch up can contact me through public or private accounts!