$BTC has just tested the support area of 122,000 USDT after being rejected at 123,400 – 123,500 USDT. This area previously acted as strong resistance, now being tested to become support. The 24-hour Spot volume remains around ≈ 2.95B USDT, but the price pattern indicates that short-term selling pressure has not dissipated.

Market fundamentals:

  • BTC is strongly supported by ETF inflows, institutional cash flow, and administrative orders supporting the opening of retirement investment channels into crypto.

  • EMA 50 and 200 on the larger timeframe are both trending upwards, reflecting a sustainable bullish trend.

  • The resistance zone at 120K is the long-term trendline (since 2021), but if it breaks above on strong volume, it could pave the way for a new trend and a price test of 130K–150K in the second half of 2025.

What scenario will occur?

  1. Short term: If it holds 122k and a recovery candle appears with improved volume, BTC could bounce back to test 123k – 125k. However, losing the 122k mark will open the way to deeper support around 118k. Increased volume along with a long green candle in this area is a positive signal; conversely, a long upper wick and weak volume indicate a bull trap.

  2. Long term: The bullish structure remains intact as long as BTC stays above 110k – 114k. The major trend is supported by ETF cash flow and institutional buying power. If it decisively surpasses 123.5k and holds above this range, the target of 130k – 150k is entirely feasible in the coming months.

BTC retest 122k: Always pump or dump deep?

So what should we do?

  1. There is potential for a bounce back if the support zone holds, but pressure from the double-top and rejection at resistance needs to be monitored. If it breaks below 118K, it may continue to adjust deeper, potentially reaching the area of 110K–114K before recovering.

  2. Bitcoin is in a continuing bull trend, with potential to rise if it surpasses 123K with sufficient momentum and institutional cash flow. Although small pullbacks may occur, as long as it doesn't fall below 110K for a prolonged period, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. The outlook remains positive if the support zone is held, and a breakout and maintenance above 123K could open new highs up to 130K+.

Combine further monitoring of $ETH and $SOL as these two coins are also maintaining high volume and may move in sync with BTC.

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