(Analysis based on data from 13.08.2025)
1. Technical analysis: symmetrical triangle and fractals
- Pattern: ETH broke the symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart — similar to the situation in 2020 before a +1,200% rise.
- Fibonacci targets:
- Conservative: $5,600 (161.8% of the height of the triangle).
- Optimistic: $7,800 (261.8%).
- Fractal similarity:
- In 2020, after the breakout, ETH rose by 300% in 3 months. The market is now repeating the structure, but considering institutional demand (ETFs, corporate reserves).
2. Fundamental growth drivers
- Institutional demand:
- Companies like SharpLink (analogous to MicroStrategy for ETH) are buying Ether through OTC deals, creating a shortage.
- Inflow into ETH-ETF: $2.12 billion for July 2025.
- Supply shortage:
- After the transition to PoS and the burning of fees, the annual issuance of ETH decreased by 90%.
Scenarios:
- Basic (70%): Growth to $5,600–$7,800 by October with corrections of 15–20%.
- Alternative (30%): Consolidation at $4,000–$4,800 until September before a breakout.
4. Risks
- Macroeconomics: Inflation data (CPI) on 12.08 may increase volatility.
- BTC correction: If Bitcoin falls below $110K, ETH could pull back to $3,800.
💡 Conclusion
- September-October is the optimal time to enter before the final phase of growth.
- Main trigger: Break above $4,500 with volume >$5 billion per day.
- Strategy: Accumulate on pullbacks to $4,200 with targets of $5,600+.
> Remember: Markets move in waves. Even in a bull trend, corrections are part of the game.