Conclusion first:
Ethereum is currently in a strong trend channel, with a high probability of effective support forming in the $4,500–4,550 area; if there are no sudden negative shocks macro-wise or on the chart, a new high is more likely to be refreshed first before a pullback consolidation.
Current spot price is around $4,640–4,670, with trend break points at $4,300/4,160.
Why is the probability of 'new highs first' greater?
New 'buying base' is being raised: The combined holdings of ETFs and corporate treasuries account for about ~8% of circulating supply of ETH, with spot ETFs exceeding 6.15 million units (>5% supply). This type of passive/semi-passive allocation brings continuous net demand, significantly raising the bottom range.
Institutional derivative participation is increasing: CME's ETH futures open interest has reached a new phase high (rising from ~$2.97B in June to ~$5.21B), pricing is more influenced by institutional positions, leading to stronger trend inertia.
Spot price momentum remains: Over the past 30 days, the increase has exceeded 40%, with futures trading volume expanding simultaneously, indicating that the rise is not 'volume shrinking', but a trend push with volume-price coordination.
Technical and price framework
Support zone: 4,500–4,550 (recent breakout range and dense moving average area), with deeper support seen at 4,300; the trend lifeline is at 4,160, breaking below which we discuss 'breakout'.
Pressure zone: 4,700–4,780 is a point of dense trading and emotional threshold; breaking above points to 4,900–4,950, approaching the historical high range.
Pattern and rhythm: Multiple upward attempts with pullbacks but higher highs and lows, a typical 'stepwise advance' in a strong trend. If the pullback support volume shrinks and then expands again with a surge, it is a common path to inertia new highs. This judgment aligns with the current market price.
Risk and hedging
Crowding/Profit-taking: After a rapid rise, there are phase-based profit-taking positions both on-chain and in the market; once emotions fluctuate, short-term volatility will be amplified, requiring caution against 'upper shadow + increased volume' short-term turnover. Recent massive liquidations also indicate that leverage remains relatively weak.
Linked variables: If Bitcoin accelerates its rise or pullback, it will transmit to ETH; however, under a strong Bitcoin background, mainstream views still assign ETH a higher scenario range (for example, if BTC targets 150,000, ETH is projected above 8.5k). This is not a short-term target but reflects medium-term expectations.
Trading framework (for reference, not investment advice)
Prioritize long positions: Observe support at 4,500–4,550; add positions once stable above 4,700, targeting 4,780/4,900.
Defensive level: an effective close below 4,300 weakens the trend; a drop below 4,160 is considered a short-term structural break, shifting to range thinking.
Rhythm control: Under a strong trend, avoid 'blindly shorting' before breaking levels; prefer a two-phase strategy of 'pullback confirmation long' and 'breakout retest then follow'.
In summary: The increase in liquidity (ETFs/institutions) and derivative participation together provide a bottom support, making ETH's short-term trend likely 'not easily breaking, new highs first' condition; before breaking below 4,300/4,160, the risks of shorting - replenishment risks and trend risks - are higher than the speculative returns.
