Analysis of Ethereum's price trends and market dynamics this year
Market performance overview:
As of now, Ethereum (ETH) has risen 40% year-to-date, significantly outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) at 30% over the same period. The price has broken through an 8-month high, currently stabilizing at the key level of $4,000. Technical indicators suggest that if the resistance level of $4,360 is breached, it may challenge the historical high of $4,890 from the end of 2021.
Institutional fund trends:
1. Spot ETF fund inflow:
- Monthly net inflow of $5 billion for spot ETFs led by institutions such as BlackRock
- Cumulative net inflow of $9 billion since July 2023
- Assets under management (AUM) have exceeded $20 billion
- Single-day net inflow peak reached $1 billion (BlackRock contributed $641 million)
- Daily trading volume set a historical record of $1.8 billion
2. Changes in institutional holdings:
- Institutional holding scale increased 10 times year-on-year, reaching $3.5 billion
- Daily average institutional net purchases of 238,200 ETH (approximately $1 billion)
- Compared to ETH's daily new issuance of 2,537, institutional purchases are 93 times the new issuance
On-chain data indicators:
- Daily trading volume reached 1.8 million transactions
- Staking ratio exceeds 30% (approximately 36 million ETH are staked)
- Total market capitalization of stablecoins continues to hit new highs
- On-chain liquidity has significantly improved
Regulatory dynamics:
The US SEC has clearly stated that liquid staking tokens do not fall under the category of securities, eliminating key regulatory uncertainties.
Corporate dynamics:
- Fundamental Global plans to raise a $200 million dedicated ETH investment fund
- 180 Life Sciences received $156 million in financing for ETH allocation
- BitMine currently holds 1.15 million ETH (approximately $5 billion)
Market mechanism analysis:
Under the PoS mechanism, current institutional demand (daily average of 238,000) far exceeds ETH's net issuance (daily average of 2,537), creating a significant supply-demand imbalance that continues to exert upward pressure on prices.
Market outlook:
If the key resistance level is broken, it is expected to open up upward space, challenging the previous high of $4,890. Given the continuous accumulation by institutions, active on-chain activities, and improving regulatory environment, ETH's strong performance relative to BTC may continue.