@BitlayerLabs
ETH rose over 8% in a single day on August 13, reaching a high of $4,676 (only 5.53% lower than the historical high of $4,878 in 2021), confirming the breakout of the cup and handle pattern neckline at $4,350, and holding above $4,600, forming a short-term upward channel.
Core factors:
1. Addresses holding 10,000–100,000 ETH, known as “whales,” increased their holdings by over 345,000 ETH (approximately $1.55 billion) in 10 days, while the exchange's ETH inventory dropped to a 4-year low (13.2M ETH), exacerbating supply tightening.
2. Anticipation of a spot ETF (SEC accelerating approvals) and the CFTC reaffirming ETH as a “commodity,” eliminating regulatory uncertainty and attracting institutional capital inflow.
3. A wave of short liquidations: triggered $110 million in short liquidations in one hour when breaking $4,200, accelerating the rise.
The formal approval of the ETF could double the scale of institutional funds, breaking $4,600 is the result of the resonance of “institutional accumulation + technical breakout + regulatory benefits,” and in the short term, it is expected to test $4,800–$5,000, but caution is needed for overbought corrections and ecological competition differentiation. In the medium term, $5,600 is the core technical target, while $12,000 will depend on sustained capital inflows and monopolistic advantages in ecology.
