#CPIWatch Let's break down the key points about CPI (Consumer Price Index) watch:

*Current Inflation Rates:*

- The US annual inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% in July 2025, slightly below forecasts of 2.8%.

- Core inflation, excluding food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1% compared to 2.9% in June, surpassing forecasts of 3% ¹.

*CPI Components:*

- Food inflation: 2.9% (same as June)

- Energy inflation: -1.6% (decline due to lower gasoline prices)

- Shelter inflation: 3.7% (slightly down from 3.8% in June)

- Services inflation: 3.8% (stable compared to June)

*Market Expectations:*

- The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation nowcasting tool estimates August 2025 CPI inflation at 2.86% and core CPI inflation at 3.02% ².

*FedWatch:*

- To stay updated on the probabilities of Federal Reserve rate moves, you can use the CME FedWatch tool, which tracks interest rate traders' expectations ³.