Core driving force for the surge: Dual nuclear explosion of policy and data

News analysis:

US CPI data massively increased (August 12, 20:30):
July CPI inflation cooled more than expected, and CME's 'Fed Watch' shows a 90.1% probability of a rate cut in September, with the market frantically betting on liquidity easing.

Trump's 'rate cut siege battle':
Trump publicly threatens to sue Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (as shown in the image 'consider allowing major lawsuits against Powell'), pressuring him to accelerate interest rate cuts, directly igniting expectations of a policy shift in the cryptocurrency market!

Capital logic chain:
Rate cut expectations ↑ → Dollar depreciation expectations ↑ → Safe-haven capital flows into ETH/BTC ↑ → Leveraged shorts liquidated ↑
Last night, ETH futures liquidated over $320 million in short positions, with a chain reaction driving prices violently upwards!

Technical breakout: Is 4600 a starting point or an endpoint?

(ETH/USDT 4-hour chart key signal)

Bullish nuclear weapon-level breakthrough:
Price strongly broke through the 4500 strong resistance zone (previous high before March 2022), with volume increased by 300% year-on-year, forming a textbook-level 'breakout gap'.

Pullback warning signal:

RSI overbought has reached 88 (daily level), similar historical positions have experienced 5%-8% technical pullbacks;

The 4600-4700 range is a massive area of loss from November 2021, and selling pressure could rebound at any time;

Whale account anomalies:
On-chain monitoring shows multiple large sell orders of tens of thousands of ETH above 4600 (source: Spot On Chain), short-term vigilance is needed as major players may take profits!

Key watershed:

Bullish lifeline: 4500 (breaking becomes support, stabilizing opens space to 4800)

Bearish counterattack point: 4420 (if broken, it will trigger a leveraged liquidation waterfall)

Future market analysis: Two scenarios for early ambush

Scenario 1 (probability 65%): Strong oscillation upwards

Driving conditions: Continued fermentation of September rate cut expectations + ETF fund inflows

Trend: Short-term pullback to 4480-4520 for accumulation, break 4700 within 2 weeks, target 4800!

Scenario 2 (probability 35%): Deep wash trap

Trigger conditions: August non-farm data exceeds expectations / Fed 'hawkish raid'

Trend: Violently crashing to 4300 to lure shorts, followed by whales buying at low prices to initiate a main upward wave!

Retail trader's combat guide (exclusive strategy):

Short-term sniper:

Current price 4580-4620, take profit in batches of 30%, place long orders at 4500 on pullback (stop loss at 4420)

Trend whale hunter:

Regular investment in spot below 4400 (last opportunity for low absorption before ETH 2.0 upgrade), target 4800-5000!

Explosive point warning:
August 28 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference - Powell's speech will become the fuse for the bull-bear showdown!

Conclusion of the final nuclear bomb:

"As long as the expectation of rate cuts remains, a bull market cannot be said to have peaked!" 4600 is definitely not the endpoint, but short-term adjustments are needed to create space.

#ETH突破4400
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