In August 2025, the price of Ethereum (ETH) broke through $4,000, reaching a new high in nearly a year. With institutional funds continuously flowing in and the technical upgrade approaching, the market has differing views on the future trend of ETH—will it continue to break previous highs or will it face a deep correction? This article will analyze the possible future trends of ETH from multiple dimensions, including on-chain data, institutional holdings, technical aspects, and macro environment.
I. Current market situation: Who is driving the rise of ETH?
1. Institutional funds dominate this round of market.
BlackRock, Fidelity, and others hold 1.54 million ETH in spot ETFs (accounting for 12.7% of circulation), significantly locking in institutional positions.
CME Ethereum futures open interest at $4.8 billion, with 85% being mid-to-long-term holdings, indicating bullish expectations from institutions.
U.S. pension funds saw an inflow of $720 million in August, with traditional fund allocation demand surging.
2. Asian funds and whales driving the market.
The ETH/KRW premium on South Korea's Upbit exchange is 1.8%, showing strong buying interest in Asia.
The top 50 non-exchange addresses increased holdings by 7,500 ETH/address this week, whales are still accumulating.
Lido staking unlocks some funds into the market, but has not formed large-scale selling pressure.
3. Expectations for technical upgrades (Proto-Danksharding).
Testnet TPS exceeds 8,000, an increase of 15 times compared to before the upgrade.
Gas fees are expected to decrease by over 80%, further stimulating DeFi and L2 ecosystem growth.
Historical experience: Similar upgrades (like the Shanghai upgrade in 2023) have an average increase of +42% over 90 days.
II. Future trends of ETH: Rise or correction?
✅ Factors supporting ETH's continued rise.
Institutional funds continue to flow in.
BlackRock ETF daily net inflow >5,000 ETH, forming stable buying pressure.
If CME futures holdings break $5 billion, it could drive the price above $4,200.
On-chain chips are highly locked in.
Exchange balances only 15.6 million ETH (historical low), equivalent to 5.2 days of trading volume, limited selling pressure.
Non-liquid supply accounts for 64.3% (staking + long-term holding), and the market is very reluctant to sell.
Derivatives market structure is healthy.
Call/put ratio of options is 0.68, with bulls in the dominant position.
Perpetual contract funding rate is 0.01%/8h, with no excessive leverage risk.
⚠️ Risks that may lead to a correction.
Short-term technical indicators are overbought.
Weekly RSI at 71 (close to overbought threshold of 75).
Price deviates 26% from the 200-day moving average ($3,200), with possible mean reversion.
Potential sources of selling pressure.
Grayscale ETHE fund has 280,000 ETH pending unlocking, with the discount narrowing to 3.2%, which may trigger arbitrage selling.
$2.4 billion nominal value of options expiring in August, with $3,800-$4,200 being the key trading range.
Macro black swan events.
Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations (current probability 15%), if realized, could amplify the downturn in the crypto market.
Uncertainty from U.S. election policies (market volatility in October usually increases by 35%).
III. Key price observation points & operational strategies.
1. Key price ranges.
Probability assessment of price range triggering conditions: Breakout up to $4,200-$4,500 if CME holdings >$5 billion + ETF weekly inflow >30,000 ETH 45% oscillation consolidation $3,600-$4,200 Grayscale selling pressure absorbed by institutions + profit-taking before the upgrade 35% deep correction <$3,500 macro risks + whale selling 20%.
2. Operational recommendations.
Short-term traders.
Take partial profits before the previous high of $4,200 (reduce positions by 20-30%).
Stop loss if it falls below $3,800 (4-hour close).
Long-term holders.
Consider adding positions when the staking rate is >35% (currently 32%).
Focus on the EIP-7730 upgrade testnet progress (key period in September).
Risk hedging.
Buy December $3,500 put options (premium < 2% of position).
Switch part of the position to BTC when the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks 0.065.
IV. On-chain monitoring checklist (key indicators).
BlackRock ETF address (starting with 0x5a8): If daily net inflow >5,000 ETH, then bullish.
Lido redemption queue: Daily unstaking >50,000 ETH requires caution.
Tether Treasury: The correlation between USDT issuance and ETH price reaches 0.89.
V. Conclusion: ETH is consolidating in the short term, but remains bullish in the medium to long term.
Short-term (1-3 months): May oscillate in the $3,600-$4,200 range, if it breaks $4,200 then look for $4,500.
Mid-term (Q4): After the Proto-Danksharding upgrade, a new round of increase is expected.
Maximum risk: Macro black swan (rate hikes, regulation) or concentrated whale selling.
Investors are advised to pay attention to changes in on-chain data, reasonably control positions, and operate flexibly at key support/resistance levels. 🚀