The drama in the cryptocurrency market is always more thrilling than fiction! Last night, Trump suddenly stated 'no tax on gold,' and gold immediately plummeted 2.5%, dragging ETH down from a high of 4300; many retail investors who chased the highs got trapped. But don’t rush to cut losses; hidden within this fluctuation are the true intentions of institutions; understanding this allows you to grasp the reversal key!
Key Point Battle: The 'Three Lifelines' of ETH.
Current ETH movements are like dancing on a tightrope, with three points determining short-term fate:
Resistance Level at 4370: This is the 'glass ceiling' of the past month; last night, institutions dumped $800 million in funds here and got stuck. A large number of previous trapped positions are stacked here; to break through, there must be new massive funds entering to take over, otherwise it will be difficult to achieve in one go.
The Bull-Bear Divide at 4250: This position can be considered the 'key to victory' for the day. It was tested three times in the morning without breaking, indicating that bulls are still resisting tenaciously. If it holds here, the rebound will have more confidence; if lost, the support below will come under pressure.
Support Level at 4150: This is the bulls' 'last bastion.' According to on-chain data, a large number of institutions have set buy orders in the 4150-4200 range; if it effectively breaks below, it may trigger a wave of automated selling, which needs to be taken seriously.
The Truth About Capital: Institutions are secretly laying out positions, not fleeing.
Many people think last night's plunge was due to institutional investors fleeing, but in fact, the opposite is true. On-chain data reveals the truth:
The violent surge at 9:30 last night was not driven by retail following the trend, but rather by institutional giants like Galaxy Digital and FalconX scooping up assets — within half an hour, $210 million worth of ETH was absorbed by whales. More crucially, tech company SharpLink converted $200 million in increased capital into 52,000 ETH locked up, which is not short-term speculation, but solid evidence of long-term bullish outlook.
Some are worried that a plunge in gold will drag down ETH, but the logic for both has already diverged: gold relies on safe-haven demand, while ETH relies on institutional ETF funds + staking ecosystems, with fundamentally different underlying support. This pullback seems more like a washout driven by news, shaking out the weaker retail investors.
Technical Alert: After being overbought, a correction is needed, but the trend has not changed.
From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI is as high as 81.94, clearly in the overbought zone, and a short-term correction is indeed needed to relieve pressure. However, the MACD golden cross pattern is still present; the fast and slow lines are narrowing, indicating that bullish strength is accumulating rather than collapsing. Although trading volume is lower than the 5-day moving average, there hasn't been a significant drop in volume; panic selling hasn't truly emerged, which is a healthy adjustment signal.
Latest Trading Strategy: Different styles respond this way.
Aggressive Strategy: You can try long positions with light positions in the 4250-4280 range. This position is the core of the intraday tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Set a strict stop loss at 4230; if it falls below, it indicates weakness in the bulls, and you should exit promptly. The initial target is 4350, and after a breakout, look at previous highs.
Conservative Strategy: Don't rush to catch the bottom; wait for a pullback to the 4180-4200 range to gradually build positions. This range is close to support levels and has institutional buy orders propping it up, providing a higher margin of safety; set the stop loss at 4120 to guard against extreme market conditions, with a long-term target above 4500.
Contract Players: Current volatility has soared above 30%. Using leverage above 10 times is like gambling with your life! Be sure to reduce your position size, set automatic stop losses, and don’t let a single fluctuation wipe out your account.
The cryptocurrency market is never just a simple following of news; it's a game of capital and logic. The upcoming impact of Trump's statements and whether institutional funds continue to enter will determine if ETH can break the shackles at 4370. Click to follow me, and I will teach you how to accurately grasp the turning points of the next market trend!
