There's not much to say about the mainstream market; the key event tonight at 8:30 is the CPI data. The market has already bet on an inflation rebound, with expectations of a core CPI month-on-month rate of 0.3% and a year-on-year rate of 3.0%-3.1%.
As long as the data doesn't come in as a huge shock, the market will likely follow the old routine—if it's slightly below expectations, the market will rally; if it's slightly above expectations, the market will pull back.
To be honest, the chance of a surprise this time is much smaller than the last non-farm payrolls. If it does drop, it might actually be an opportunity. But I know that when the adjustment really comes, many people will get anxious again, and bear market theories will flood the screens.
That's how the market is—when it rises, people think it's a trap; when it falls, they are afraid to buy, always stuck in a cycle of regret.
Remember, data is just a catalyst; the trend is what really matters. Don't wait until the market has moved to realize what's happening. It's a mistake to hesitate when you should be positioning yourself and then succumb to FOMO when prices rise. That's the most costly way to play the market.
