An old saying in the crypto space has proven true: 'Those who play contracts are either gambling their lives at liquidation points or counting the money others have lost.' Tonight, the narrow range of Ethereum (ETH) between 4200 and 4400 USD is the most fatal 'guillotine' of 2025!
Why is it so dangerous? The data does not lie:
1.6 billion USD 'bombs' are tied here! The on-chain liquidation chart is clear: around 4200 USD, there are a lot of bombs waiting to explode the bulls (those who borrowed money to buy up); around 4400 USD, there are a lot of explosives waiting to blow up the bears (those who borrowed money to short). Combined, there are a total of 1.63 billion USD waiting to vanish into thin air! What does that mean? It's roughly one-third of the entire trading volume in the crypto space in a day, all staked on these two prices!
The market is smoking hot! The orders in the exchanges (buying and selling) are down by 63% compared to usual! Market liquidity is as thin as a layer of window paper. This means that as soon as the price slightly breaks through either 4200 or 4400, it will be like knocking down dominoes, instantly triggering a chain explosion!
Breaking through 4200 (down)? Below are a bunch of long stop-loss orders waiting to be triggered, and the price could plunge through 4000 USD like a dive!
Breaking through 4400 (up)? Above are a bunch of short stop-loss orders waiting to be ignited, and the price could soar to 4800 USD or even higher like a rocket! A sudden surge or drop of 20% is possible!
Are the big players sharpening their knives while retail investors are like pigs?
Last night, a 'whale' (super big investor) secretly placed a buy order for 5000 ETH at 4250 USD. Meanwhile, the number of contracts betting that the price will rise to 4400 USD (call options) on Deribit exchange skyrocketed by 300%!
This operation is too obvious: first smash the market, exploding all the longs around 4200, collect a wave; then pump the market, blowing up all the shorts around 4400, and collect another wave! A typical 'double kill', and retail investors are just the meat on the cutting board.
Adding fuel to the fire is: there are rumors that Vitalik (the founder of Ethereum) secretly met with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) in the U.S.! The ETH spot ETF (a channel for large funds to enter) might be approved as early as August 15! Policy news + technical explosives make tonight simply a 'double nuclear explosion'!
How can small investors survive? Either run or be ruthless!
The exchanges are scared and secretly lowered the maximum leverage available. Smart money has already moved:
Situation one: ETH price falls below 4200 USD (effectively falls below, for example, doesn't recover in 15 minutes)
Hurry! If you have long positions (betting on price increase), close your positions and run!
For the brave: you can open a short position (betting on price decrease), but don't use too much leverage (5x at most), and aim for the psychological level of 4000 USD. Remember to set a stop-loss! (for example, set a stop-loss at 3980)
Situation two: ETH price violently breaks through 4400 USD (strong volume breakout, trading volume must be high)
Chase! Directly go long (betting on price increase), first aim for 4500 USD, if it breaks the historical high of 4800 USD, it likely won't stop there! Likewise! Must set a stop-loss! (for example, set a stop-loss at 4380 upon breaking)
Situation three: just muddling between 4200-4240 (sideways oscillation)
Be honest! It's best not to open new positions! Experts who want to play it risky can only use very small positions to enter and exit quickly (for example, a light short at 4235, stop-loss at 4239, target at 4220; or a light long at 4220, stop-loss at 4215, target at 4230). The risk is extremely high!
Tonight, there are three 'nuclear bombs' that might explode:
Fed Chairman Powell's speech (midnight Beijing time): If he hints at imminent interest rate cuts, ETH, as a 'digital gold', will attract massive funds and surge!
Tether (the company that issues USDT) has printed another 500 million USDT: the whale's 'bullets' have increased, and they might pull the market at any time!
Binance ETH contract funding rate is negative (-0.3%): this indicates that shorts are clustered and too crowded! They might be squeezed (short squeezed) at any moment!
The ultimate survival mantra:
4200 and 4400 are not just prices, they are the gates of hell! Either you step on other people's corpses (liquidation orders) to make money, or you become someone else's stepping stone.
Immediately! Right now! Check your positions!
Is your leverage too high? Reduce it!
Have you set a stop-loss? If not, set it now!
Is the money you're using not affecting your ability to eat and sleep? If not, hurry and withdraw!
Don't fantasize! The big players are just waiting to feast on the unsuspecting. Either you run faster than anyone else, or you bet hard enough and set your stop-loss firmly.
Tonight, those who survive are not the ones who guess the best, but those who cut their positions the hardest and are the most disciplined! Do you want to be the one counting money or the one being counted? Choose for yourself!
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