Bullish forces raise the coffin for bears! After BTC skyrocketed to $120,000, institutions frantically increased their positions. Retail investors must read: BTC's direction this week



Today, BTC stormed the $120,000 mark, surging 3.8% in 24 hours, setting a new high of $122,000! But underlying currents are stirring—the 4-hour candlestick closed bearish, with trading volume surging 18%, and selling pressure quietly rising. Is this surge a forced short squeeze by institutions or a trap to lure in buyers? Should retail investors chase the rise or buy the dip?


1. Core impacts from news

(1) Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations stimulate the market

The countdown to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has begun. JPMorgan predicts a 25 basis point cut in September, with the possibility of three consecutive cuts this year. A 50 basis point aggressive cut may be triggered when the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%. Referring to the 2020 rate cut cycle, BTC once soared to $64,000. The current market anticipates that liquidity easing will drive the market to repeat this trend. Rate cuts will reduce funding costs, increase market liquidity, and may guide funds into the Bitcoin market.

(2) ETF and corporate capital injection heat

BlackRock's BTC ETF performs impressively: attracting $1.2 billion in a week, setting a new high since the halving, reflecting traditional institutions and large capital's optimism towards Bitcoin, driving market inflows and sentiment heating up.

Bullish sentiment in the futures market is significant: CME's open interest broke 15 billion, with bullish options accounting for 63%, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for price increases, supporting price growth.

Corporate holdings become a new driving force: Metaplanet increased its BTC holdings, surpassing Tesla, indicating enhanced corporate recognition of BTC's asset value, and the demonstration effect may attract more companies to enter the market.

(3) Ecological prosperity hides risks

Ecological innovation vitality highlighted: Ordinals protocol NFT daily trading volume exceeded 5,000 pieces, Layer 2 locked value exceeded 8 billion, showing the expansion of the Bitcoin ecosystem in digital asset innovation and technological applications.

Leverage risk accumulation: Tether's weekly issuance increased by 4 billion USDT, stablecoin supply rate (SSR) broke 1.2, and leveraged funds are piling up. Price pullbacks may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, causing panic selling in the market.

2. Key signals in the technical battle between bulls and bears


(1) Daily level bullish and bearish signals intertwine

MACD golden cross expands, Bollinger Bands open upward, indicating enhanced bullish strength and an upward trend; however, RSI is overbought at 78, so we need to be wary of a pullback risk similar to the 17% retracement on April 2023.

(2) Short-term pressure at the 4-hour level

MACD histogram continues negative growth, KDJ dead cross, combined with MA10/MA30 downward, indicating weakened short-term bullish momentum and strengthened bearish forces, putting the market under adjustment pressure.

(3) Key price levels determine direction


"Institutions are in control, retail investors need to be cautious!"

CME open interest surged by 47%, yet Canaan Creative's mining machine gross margin plummeted by 29%—under institutionalized computing power, miner selling pressure has dropped to an 18-month low. BTC's correlation with the US stock VIX index is -0.73, reinforcing its hedging attributes, but Google search popularity is only at 45, indicating a divergence between sentiment and capital, hiding volatility risks!

Aggressive approach: light positions at $120,000 to try bullish, stop loss at $114,000, target $128,000-$132,000, position ≤ 3%!

Conservative approach: wait for a pullback to $115,000-$118,000 to accumulate positions in batches, with a single transaction ≤ 20% of assets.

Red line warning: Spot holdings ≤ 50%, stay away from leverage!

Support level rises to $115,000; breaking below may trigger a defense battle at $110,000. Resistance at $128,000 gathers 3.7 billion options contracts; a breakthrough may aim for $130,000, with intense competition between bulls and bears.

Market postings have a certain delay; come to me for entry points as soon as you see the post! Brother Xing's knife is faster than the dog house! Follow me, and I'll teach you how to counter the market!$BTC #加密总市值创历史新高 #BTC重返12万