Conclusion First:
As one of the most important 'Application Layer Protocols' in the Web3 ecosystem, WalletConnect is in a critical development phase. In the next 3-5 years, if it can continue to strengthen its 'wallet entry' and 'chain abstraction' capabilities while properly balancing commercialization and decentralization, it has the potential to become the 'HTTP' or 'TCP/IP' of the Web3 world; otherwise, it may be replaced by smarter protocols, reduced to an ordinary SDK tool.
I. Macro Positioning: From 'QR Code Connection' to 'Chain Abstraction Layer'
Version Evolution:
v1.0 (2019): QR Code-based dApp ↔ Wallet Communication.
v2.0 (2022): Supports Multi-chain, Persistent Sessions, Push Notifications.
v3.0 (2024+): Achieving Chain/Account Abstraction, Cross-Chain Signatures, Seamless Gas Payments, Unified MPC/AA Experience.
Core Narrative:
WalletConnect is upgrading from a 'Message Relay Protocol' to a 'Chain Abstraction Layer', allowing users to focus on assets and operations rather than the underlying chain. Its first-mover advantage on the wallet side is an important barrier against competitors like Polygon CDK, OP Stack, and Particle.
II. User Needs: Wallet Entry + Multi-chain Experience Explosion
Wide Wallet Coverage:
Over 500+ wallets (e.g., Metamask, Trust, OKX, Phantom) have integrated WalletConnect, but also face challenges – for example, OKX and Binance are building built-in dApp stores, aiming to bypass WalletConnect.
Multi-chain Application Necessity:
DeFi, GameFi, SocialFi, RWA, AI Agent, and other scenarios heavily rely on the ability of 'multi-chain + multi-sign + seamless Gas', and WalletConnect's 'Signature as a Service' perfectly meets this demand. In the face of the rise of non-EVM chains (e.g., TON, Solana, Sui, Aptos), it needs to further expand relay and signature support.
III. Competitive Landscape: Three Types of Competitors + New Protocol Pathways
Three Main Competitors:
Wallet Native SDK (e.g., Metamask SDK, Phantom Deep Link)
Abstract Protocols (e.g., Particle, Biconomy, ZeroDev, Near)
System-level Solutions (e.g., Apple/Google Passkeys, Farcaster Frames)
New Threat: Intent Protocol
As proposed by Anoma, Essential, etc., the new paradigm of 'Intent Execution' must lead WalletConnect to upgrade its logic from 'Signature Requests' to 'Intent Resolution + Conditional Execution' if it becomes mainstream.
IV. Business Model: From Public Tools to Bilateral Networks
Current Situation: Open Source Protocol + Foundation Support, Profit Model Not Yet Clear.
Potential Monetization Methods:
Relay Node Staking/Charging
Cross-chain Gas Abstraction Fees
SDK White Label Authorization
Sorter/Bridge Ecosystem Revenue Sharing
Risks: Rapid commercialization may undermine protocol neutrality, triggering forks or community splits (refer to the Uniswap GPL case).
V. Governance Mechanism: Token Promotes Decentralization
WCT Token (Expected 2025-2026):
Used for staking, governance voting, and developer incentives, but needs to cautiously balance 'public goods' and 'investment returns'.
Organizational Structure: Foundation + WalletConnect Labs + Community DAO, if the governance mechanism is not mature, it may fall into a deadlock of upgrade stagnation and node closure.
VI. Comprehensive Score (As of Q3 2025)
Dimensions
Rating
Technical Barriers
★★★★☆
Network Effects
★★★★★
Commercialization Potential
★★★☆☆
Competitive Threats
★★★☆☆
Regulatory Risks
★★☆☆☆
Overall Evaluation
4.0/5 (Opportunities Greater than Risks)
Investor Focus on Nodes
Q4 2025: v3.0 Mainnet Launch, Observing the Practical Implementation of Chain Abstraction.
Q1 2026: WCT Issuance, Focus on Staking Returns and Lock-up Ratios.
Q3 2026: Whether to Deeply Integrate with Apple/Google, Determining System-level Ecological Position.
Long-term Risks: If users no longer 'perceive chains' in the future, WalletConnect's role will be severely marginalized.
In Summary:
WalletConnect's biggest competitor is not other protocols, but the fact that 'users no longer need to know about the existence of chains'.
If it can become the 'invisible yet irreplaceable connection layer' in the wave of abstraction, it can become the foundational protocol of Web3; otherwise, it will just be a temporary scanning tool.