Current price: $4203
Technical aspect: Slightly overheated in the short term, but still has upward momentum.
Fundamentals: Institutional funds continue to flow in, with high on-chain activity.
Expected range: $4,100–$4,300, if broken, can look towards $4,400+
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Technical analysis
RSI(14): About 47, neutral to slightly bullish, still some room for short-term.
MACD: Showing a buy signal, momentum is still present.
Moving average situation: Short-term (5/10/20 days) in the selling zone, 50/100/200 days are in buying arrangement, indicating that the medium to long-term trend remains bullish.
Support and resistance:
Support levels: $4,086, $4,150 (refer to the 30-minute chart)
Resistance level: If it can hold above $4,200, it can attack $4,300–$4,400.
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Fundamental driving factors
1. Institutional funds pouring in: In the past 12 weeks, ETH ETP inflows approached $990 million, significantly boosting market confidence.
2. Increased on-chain activity: In terms of supply, circulating ETH reached 121 million, with over 36 million ETH staked, effectively reducing market circulation.
3. Sentiment and volume: Market sentiment is extremely optimistic, while derivative short liquidations drive short-term gains, leading to a surge in trading volume.
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Today's investment strategy
Short-term strategy: Price is in the range of $4,100–$4,200, suitable for gradual follow-up; if it breaks $4,200, then consider adding positions.
Risk control: If it falls below $4,086, consider adjusting positions promptly.
Focus: The intensity of ETF inflows and on-chain activity will determine whether the short-term trend continues.