🌐 In-depth analysis of global market indicators
- Total market cap peaked and then retreated to $3.92 trillion (-1.01%), the fear and greed index dropped to 61 (daily -7 points), the market reacted strongly to the non-farm data revision.
- Derivatives risk heating up: Liquidation amount surged to $530 million (83% long position), BTC perpetual contract funding rate reached 0.098% (weekly peak).
- Stablecoin unusual movements: USDC net redemption of 38 million in a single day, Asian OTC premium rebounded to 1.2%, liquidity tightening signals reappeared.
⚡️ Core asset panorama scan
1. BTC faces technical pressure
- Lost the key level of $116,000 (-1.2%), miners sold 6,200 BTC in 7 days (approximately $720 million), the holding index plummeted to 79.
- On-chain warning: Five ancient addresses from 2010 transferred 1,250 BTC (currently worth $145 million) to Coinbase, marking the first movement after being dormant for over 15 years.
2. ETH ecosystem offense and defense battle
- Price dropped to $3,980 (-3.7%), L2 network TVL grew against the trend to $48 billion (Arbitrum accounted for $22 billion).
- Staking crisis: Lido faced a massive redemption of 32,000 ETH (worth $127 million), validator exit queue extended to 4.3 days.
📶 Extreme differentiation map of sectors
📉 DeFi liquidation wave spreads
- SOL plummeted 8.5%: Liquidation volume of lending protocol MarginFi surged 370% in a single day, high-leverage positions triggered a chain reaction of liquidations.
- AAVE V3 malfunction: Some liquidation orders executed at 0 Dai, community questioned protocol vulnerabilities.
📈 RWA hedging attributes highlighted
- ONDO rose 7.3% against the trend: BlackRock's dollar reserve pool surpassed $700 million, growing 40% in 30 days.
- Tokenized treasury bonds TVL surpassed $20 billion, short-term U.S. treasury products annualized yield reached 5.8%.
🔥 Hong Kong concept stocks show unusual movements
- CFX surged 22.1% in a single day: Hong Kong government approved the first pilot of HK$500 million blockchain supply chain financing.
- ACH cross-border payment protocol upgraded, supporting instant settlement in digital HKD, weekly trading volume increased by 800%.
🌍 Macroeconomic financial tsunami
1. Non-farm nuclear explosion continues to ferment
- The U.S. revised down non-farm payrolls for May and June by 258,000 (the largest revision since 2016), and the unemployment rate in July rose to 4.3% (expected 3.9%).
- Market turbulence:
→ Probability of Fed rate cut in September soared to 96% (CME data)
→ U.S. Dollar Index plummeted 1.9% (the largest single-day drop since 2009)
→ Gold broke $2,580/ounce (historical high)
2. New geopolitical economic order
- Level 3 tariff countermeasures initiated:
→ China imposes a 300% export tariff on rare earths to the U.S. (effective immediately)
→ Direct settlement agreement signed between Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan, reducing SWIFT reliance by 37%.
- The Central Bank of Russia urgently raised interest rates by 400 basis points to 18%, stabilizing the ruble exchange rate at 102:1.
🏦 Regulatory and institutional offense and defense battle
🇺🇸 U.S. regulatory storm
- SEC surprise inspection: Requires 10 ZK-Rollup projects to submit proof of security attributes (including zkSync, Starknet).
- Spot ETF fund exodus: Net outflow of $415 million in a single day (Grayscale GBTC accounted for 83%), setting a yearly record.
🇭🇰 Breakthrough in Hong Kong policy
- Digital HKD integrated into the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect: supports mainland investors in trading and settling Hong Kong stocks (first day trading volume broke $800 million).
- The first stablecoin license issued: HSBC approved to issue HKD₮, with 100% of reserve assets in HKD deposits.
💼 Institutional long-short game
- MicroStrategy reduced its holdings by 2,000 BTC (approximately $232 million) to cash out to pay convertible bond interest.
- Citadel secretly building positions: On-chain tracking shows it accumulated 41,000 ETH ($163 million) at its OTC address.
🔎 Monitoring on-chain undercurrents
1. Fractures in stablecoin hegemony
- USDT OTC premium disappears, issuer destroyed 120 million in a single day (Asian demand plummeted).
- Compliance stablecoins proportion dropped to 76% (USDT 42% + USDC 34%), regulatory impact starting to show.
2. Whales urgently hedging
- Jump Trading associated addresses sold 3.8 million LDO ($11.5 million), confidence in the staking sector undermined.
- Creditors of Three Arrows Capital transferred 10.2 million FTT ($22 million) to Binance, or initiated liquidation.
3. Staking economy reconstruction
- The number of ETH validators actively exiting surged: 1,632 nodes left in a single day (about 52,000 ETH), APY passively rose to 4.3%.
- Cosmos ecosystem staking rate surpassed 71% (ATOM annual inflation rate dropped to 4.9%), enhancing anti-dumping capability.
> Today's value insights:
> “When 250,000 non-farm adjustments tear apart the economic narrative, when 15 years of dormant BTC batches awaken and exit—
> The resonance impact of on-chain data and macro policies is pushing the market towards a critical point of liquidity reassessment.”