Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recently warned on X (formerly Twitter) that “Japan will lose almost a million people this year”. He was referring to the country’s fast-declining population in 2025 — a problem built up over decades. Musk emphasized that AI isn’t the cause, but suggested it could be part of the solution.

Why Japan’s Population Is Shrinking

1. Births vs. Deaths: A Record Decline

In 2024, Japan recorded 720,988 births — the lowest since records began in 1899 — and 1.6 million deaths. This means the country lost nearly 900,000 people in a single year, the sharpest drop since post-war data collection started.

2. An Aging Nation

About 30% of Japan’s population is over 65, while the working-age group (15–64) is now below 60%. This imbalance places huge strain on healthcare, pensions, and welfare systems.

3. Long-Term Structural Decline

Japan’s population has been shrinking for over a decade. Projections indicate the working-age group could shrink by 31% by 2060. The fertility rate is just 1.20 children per woman, far below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain population stability.

Causes Behind the Crisis

Rising living costs, job insecurity, and changing social norms have led many young people to delay or forgo marriage and children. Government measures — such as free childcare, expanded maternity benefits, four-day workweeks, and AI matchmaking programs — have so far made little difference.

Can AI Be the Solution?

Musk suggests AI could help by boosting productivity, automating healthcare, and supporting elderly care. However, he admits that technology alone cannot undo decades of demographic decline.

Japan as a Global Warning

Other developed countries — including South Korea and Italy — are facing similar fertility and aging problems. Japan’s experience may become both a warning sign and a model for tackling these challenges.

Key Takeaways

2024 marked the biggest population drop in Japan’s modern history — nearly 1 million fewer people.

Low birth rates, high death rates, and an aging society are creating a serious national crisis.