The coming month and a half could be a turning point for Bitcoin, according to renowned trader Peter Brandt. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Brandt shared his analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price patterns in relation to the halving — an event that happens roughly every four years and cuts the rate of new Bitcoin creation in half.
Brandt explained that, in his view, the midpoint of Bitcoin’s low-to-high cycle usually falls around the halving date, give or take a couple of weeks. Based on this pattern, he believes Bitcoin might reach a “tradable top” within the next six weeks. In simple terms, this could mean the current rally has one last push before a possible pullback.
After dropping to $112,000 on August 2, Bitcoin has climbed back above $117,000, reclaiming the range it held through most of July. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $117,656 — up 0.89% over the last 24 hours and 3.6% for the week. The cryptocurrency’s latest all-time high came on July 14, when it briefly broke above $123,000.
The Question: Is Bitcoin’s Famous Four-Year Cycle Over?
Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a four-year rhythm tied to the halving event. The typical pattern has been:
A strong rally after the halving, eventually leading to a new record high.
A steep correction of 70–80% from the peak, triggering a “crypto winter.”
A long consolidation phase, followed by renewed growth as the next halving approaches.
This cycle has repeated multiple times in Bitcoin’s history. However, some analysts believe things might be changing. Factors like the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, shifting investor profiles, and a more positive regulatory climate are altering market dynamics.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has suggested that the traditional cycle could be ending — but says we’ll only know for sure if Bitcoin performs strongly in 2026. He remains optimistic that it will.
For now, all eyes are on the next six weeks, as traders watch to see whether Brandt’s prediction of a near-term peak plays out — or if Bitcoin’s current rally breaks the old rules entirely.
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