#8月9月的市场预测
The second half of 2025 has begun
Market overview on August 9
• Bitcoin: $116,722, down 0.22%, continuing to consolidate at high levels.
• Ethereum: $4,015 (+3.2%) leading mainstream coins; on-chain daily transactions at 1.74M hit a new historical high, ETF net inflow last week was $154 million, key short-term levels are $3,950–$4,100, if it breaks out with volume, it could reach $4,200–$4,400; if it falls below $3,800, it will retest the $3,750 area.
• Highly volatile altcoins: Aerodrome (AERO) surged 23% in a single day, driving the DeFi sector; SOL +1.5%, DOGE +4.7%; MNT -4.4% leading the decline.
• Institutional movements: Coinbase opens DEX functionality to U.S. users; Animoca establishes a stablecoin joint venture with Standard Chartered; IVD Medical invests $19 million to increase ETH holdings for medical asset tokenization.
Outlook and risk points for September
1. Seasonal pressure: August and September have historically been the weakest two months for digital assets, averaging a 5–15% pullback over the past decade; if macro conditions do not cooperate, ETH may pull back to $3,500–$3,600, and BTC could test $105k.
2. ETF fund flow: After the approval of the ETH spot ETF at the end of July, strong net inflow in the first week of August; if there are consecutive net redemptions in September, it will become the biggest short-term selling pressure.
3. Macro and regulation: On August 7, the U.S. announced a new round of tariff lists, and the market has factored in “moderate risks”; if the FOMC meeting in September cuts rates by 25–50 bp, it will favor risk assets, otherwise it will increase volatility.
4. Technical analysis: BTC weekly RSI is above 70, historical data shows that after being overbought for 3–4 consecutive weeks, a 10–15% pullback is likely; the ETH/BTC exchange rate has rebounded 38%, if it faces resistance at the 0.06 level, funds may flow back to Bitcoin, suppressing altcoin season.
Comprehensive judgment
• August: Mainly high-level consolidation, BTC range $110k–$125k, ETH $3,750–$4,200, focus on DeFi, Meme, and newly listed coins.
• September: If ETF inflows continue and there are no black swan events macro-wise, ETH is expected to break through $4,200–$4,500, driving altcoin performance; if funds flow back to the dollar or regulations tighten, it may drop first and then stabilize, with BTC looking at $100k–$105k support.
• Strategy: Short-term traders can buy ETH in the $3,850–$4,000 range, with a stop loss at $3,750; long-term investors should gradually build positions at seasonal lows in late August, with a focus on ETF funds and the direction after the Federal Reserve's policy implementation in September.
