The core points are two:
Time + patience is your greatest capital.
Don't blindly believe that 'interest rate cuts = bull market'.
1. Enduring time is more important than anything else
The market is like a madman: It doesn't care whether you are a genius or a fool, it just runs blindly with the emotions (one moment terrified, the next moment buying wildly).
Your weapons are 'do the opposite' + 'play dead':
When others are terrified and selling frantically, you think about whether you can pick up some bargains (when others are fearful, I am greedy).
When others are crazily chasing prices, you think about whether it's time to sell some and take profits (when others are greedy, I am fearful).
Less fuss, hold BTC:
Staring at the market every day and trading frequently will tire you out without making a profit, and it will mess up your mindset.
Switch to a 'play dead and hold coins' mode (not trading much in a year), stabilize your mindset, and time will actually become your friend.
Believe in the long-term rise of BTC (look at 5 years, 10 years), then you've already won half the battle. Short-term fluctuations in profit and loss? Don't pay too much attention.
2. About interest rate cuts, don't think too optimistically
Now many people are holding onto altcoins, waiting for two things to save them:
The Federal Reserve quickly cuts interest rates, flooding the market, and altcoins rise.
Ethereum skyrockets to a new high, taking all altcoins with it.
Reality is harsh:
Interest rate cuts ≠ immediate bull market:
Interest rate cuts are due to a poor economy (bad employment, real estate difficulties, PMI below 50), not because the economy is improving!
The liquidity released will first fill the bellies of the US stock market's 'favored children', and only then might it flow into the high-risk zone of the crypto market.
This interest rate cut is expected to be a 'slow knife cutting meat' (a little bit at a time), unlike the 'strong medicine' from 2020. Don't expect an immediate explosive bull market.
Even if interest rates are really cut, the market might rise first and then fall (trading on expectations), don't be single-minded thinking it will only rise and never fall.
ETH hitting new highs ≠ altcoin season:
If interest rates are cut and ETH hits new highs while your altcoins are still barely alive, what will you do? You need a Plan B (worst-case scenario).
The market has no money, and no one can soar:
There is only so much money; if you make money, others lose. Too many retail investors are waiting for their altcoins to break even, but where will the money come from?
If the economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate, expecting a comprehensive surge (all coins skyrocketing)? Difficult! At most, there will be some local hotspots to trade.
What to do?
BTC is the ballast: From a long-term perspective, it remains one of the most reliable choices, hold it tightly.
Cash/U is the lifeline: Don't go ALL IN! Keep enough bullets (cash or U), the economic situation is unclear, having money in hand keeps you calm, and if there is a real crash, you can buy the dip.
Don't dream of getting rich overnight: Listen to the myths of hundredfold or thousandfold returns, but don't risk your entire fortune.
Summary:
If you want to win at trading coins, you need to endure (time), go against human nature (emotions), and trade less (hold BTC).
Interest rate cuts are a positive sign, but they are not a miracle cure. A poor economy is the big backdrop, so being cautious doesn't hurt.
Hold BTC and play dead, prepare cash/U for emergencies, and don't wait for miracles among altcoins.
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