In recent days, the market hasn’t shown much performance. The big brother is still fluctuating between 110,000 and 120,000, with a market share still reaching 61.76%, remaining high, related to certain institutions continuing to accumulate. In the past two weeks, a certain wallet has accumulated 500 big brothers, the listed company ED increased its holdings by 88 big brothers yesterday, and H100 increased its holdings by 60 big brothers, with a net inflow of 91.52 million USD. Even the vice president of West University, Vance, has publicly stated: I hold big brother.

This makes it even harder for the big brother to go down in the short term.

Considering that the interest rate cut is only delayed, not canceled, I maintain the 3rd judgment that in the short term, the big brother should still wait for the lines to be drawn; when the good news comes, it will reach new highs again. I am relatively optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.

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E has rebounded to 3600-3700 and has been consolidating for several days. Many people are confused about whether it should go up or down now, and whether there is still a chance for a new high.

Today, I will briefly talk about E; first, it is important to understand that the fundamentals of E have changed, mainly in two major directions. The first direction: price, the core of the current price push for the big brother and E comes from 1: spot ETF, for example, yesterday the net inflow of E's ETF was 34.15 million USD; 2. Corporate strategic storage strategy, which was more obvious in the past for the big brother, while E's clear presence has only slowly emerged in the past two months since Xin Zhuang came. In the past few cycles, there have been claims that E would replace the big brother, but it has ultimately proven that gold is still gold, and silver is still silver; real gold is not afraid of fire. There has been a data point that has always been used as a reference: the exchange rate of E to the big brother ETH/BTC, see the chart below.

From the peak of 0.12 in 2018 to 0.016 in the last cycle in January 2020, then to 0.08 in December 2021, and again dropping to 0.017 in April of this year, it's been gradually moving up bit by bit, currently at 0.032. Doesn't it look a bit like the W trend? Both cycle bottoms were between 0.016 and 0.018, then it rose. Now it is very likely moving in the / direction, indicating that the fluctuations of E will be a bit larger moving forward.

Short-term fluctuations are small, still caused by the entry of institutions; the second direction: ecology; whether E's ecosystem can return to its former prosperous state and whether RWA can truly bring traffic to E depends on on-chain activities.

Some institutions, like Cathie Wood, believe that the SOL chain will also be a good option, along with a series of other major chains from the West; but they have forgotten that the most important factor in this cycle is that E is not driven by traffic, but supported by stable purchases. Currently, the West's strategy is to stabilize purchases. You need to understand the key factors behind the upcoming staking ETFs and a new upgrade's benefits. In the larger direction, E still has the opportunity to break the historical high of 4868 set in 2021; only then will it reinvigorate the entire E ecosystem.

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Speaking of altcoins, after finishing the previous diary on the 3rd, the overall altcoin market rebounded along with E. Aside from a few stronger altcoins, the rest only experienced a slight rebound, failing to restore market confidence completely; this has instead provided some short trading opportunities, specifically targeting small market cap sectors like the BN Alpha sector. During this time, many speculative coins have emerged, such as: MYX, which surged about 20 times in 4 days, and DONKEY, which surged about 10 times, completely igniting the entire market.

As a sector created this year, BN Alpha needs to perform in such a market to have a chance. The common feature among the above altcoins is that they are new, with market caps of a few million, making them easy to collect chips. They can be driven up without needing much capital, and most people's attention isn't on these, so they can be stealthily driven up, and by the time people react, prices have already risen significantly.

If you want to play in the short term, small funds should focus on this area. There are opportunities in VC or MEME tokens with market caps of a few million, such as #BNBCard #BUBB #bnbxbt ; each can be picked, and if one out of ten runs up ten times, you're guaranteed a win, as the proportion of losing money in such small caps is limited. Additionally, remember that retail investors can also make money by participating in these speculative concepts, but be cautious to take profits and stop losses when the tide goes out. Strongly advise against the trading habit of averaging down without selling until breaking even.

Is there still a chance for a broad range of altcoins in the secondary market? There is still some, specifically regarding expectations after interest rate cuts and the decrease in the big brother's market share. The influx of funds will take time.

1. BN has updated its August reserve proof, significantly accumulating the big brother and E, while continuing to maintain a non-accumulation strategy for SOL. All of these are operations with the platform's own funds, generally obtained through platform income, not user assets, indirectly reflecting the platform's attitude, with the increase in E's quantity being 30,400, a growth of 381,423% compared to June.

2. The Japanese consortium SBI has applied to the Financial Services Agency to launch a spot ETF for the big brother, XRP, intended to be listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, along with a public trust mixing the big brother with gold. This means that the issues affecting Japanese funds entering the crypto market due to tax rates will be significantly alleviated. Retail investors trading Japanese stocks can now directly buy the ETF for the big brother and XRP, and large funds from Japan and South Korea are finally set to enter the market.

3. The US SEC has released a statement on liquid staking activities, clearly stating that liquid staking does not have the attributes of a security. As a result, staking-related tokens like LDO and RPL experienced a brief surge. This benefits not only E's staking sector but also SOL's and the entire DEFI sector, paving the way for future staking ETFs, which is a long-term positive.

4. The greed-fear index is at 62, indicating greed.