According to current market dynamics and Trump's policy signals, the key support levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum may indeed become short-term market indicators. The latest data and policy background analysis are as follows:
I. Analysis of the validity of key technical support
1. Bitcoin support level verification: Currently, BTC forms strong support at $114,700 (EMA30), which coincides with the low on August 7 and the 53.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If the price stabilizes here, there is potential for a rebound to test the upper Bollinger Band pressure at $117,750. However, caution is needed as the MACD death cross signal has not been fully resolved; if it loses $112,500, it may trigger a deep correction.
2. The technical pattern of Ethereum (ETH) forms a double bottom structure at $3,650 (EMA60), and the golden cross on the 12-hour level shows a repair of bullish momentum. If it stabilizes at this position, it is expected to challenge the previous high of $3,750; if it breaks below, it may test the Fibonacci support at $3,550. Current on-chain data shows a surge in net outflows from exchanges by 84%, suggesting long-term holders are reluctant to sell.
II. The bullish and bearish game of Trump's policies
1. Short-term bullish expectations: Recent signals of support for cryptocurrency released by Trump (such as establishing a presidential advisory committee and promoting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve) may stimulate market sentiment. His proposed logic of 'realizing dollar repatriation through cryptocurrency' resonates with the growth in stablecoin market capitalization (currently over $200 billion), potentially driving funds into the market in the short term.
2. Mid to long-term risk warnings need to be vigilant about uncertainties in policy execution:
- Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 93.6%, the PCE inflation data (2.6%) may trigger policy reversals.
- The tokenization process of RWA is constrained by an unclear regulatory framework, currently accounting for only 1.2% of the crypto market.
- Layer2 expansion has led to a decline in ETH transaction fee income, which may suppress the space for valuation recovery.
III. Suggested operational strategies
- Bullish strategy: If BTC stabilizes after a pullback to 114,700-115,000, a light position can be tried for a long, with a stop loss at 114,000 and a target of 117,000-118,000; for ETH, pay attention to the support at 3,650-3,680, and after stabilization look for a breakthrough at 3,750.
- Bearish hedge: If it rebounds to 117,750 (BTC) or 3,780 (ETH) under pressure, one can short for a potential pullback, with stop losses at 118,500/3,820.
- Risk control: It is recommended to control the position of a single trade within 10%, with total leverage not exceeding 5 times. Focus on tonight's speeches from Federal Reserve officials and changes in CME Bitcoin futures positions. The current market is in a sensitive period of policy expectations and technical gameplays. It is advisable to participate in the range fluctuations with a 30% position and adjust strategies only after confirming the validity of key resistance/support. If Trump's policies can substantially promote the development of stablecoins and the RWA ecosystem, it may open a new round of value reassessment for cryptocurrencies.
