Market Scenario Simulation: August's 'Inducement and Drop', September's Rate Cut Initiates Bull Market

1. August: The market may see the 'last rise', followed by a sharp decline

Short-term rebound: As the market starts to bet on rate cuts, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies may briefly surge, attracting retail investors to chase the rise.

Subsequent sharp drop: If economic data (such as August non-farm payrolls, CPI) confirms recession risks, institutions may massively reduce positions, leading to a market crash.

(Similar to the 2022 pattern: Federal Reserve insists on rate hikes → Economic data worsens → Market crashes → Policy shifts)

2. September: Rate cut implemented, market bottoms and reverses

- If economic data is bad enough, the Federal Reserve may announce a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, releasing liquidity.

- Once the rate cut is confirmed, funds will flow back into risk assets (U.S. stocks, Bitcoin), initiating a new bull market.

3. Potential 'Crazy Bull Market' in Q4

- Historical patterns show that within 6 months after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, U.S. stocks average an increase of 20%+ (like in 2019).

- Bitcoin may benefit from **rate cuts + spot ETF fund inflows, breaking previous highs (100,000 USD?). #比特币流动性危机 #加密股IPO季 #币安广场社区小贴士