📉 MEME plummets 9% to explore new lows! Can the life-and-death line at 0.0016 be maintained? Short-term bottom fishing or continue shorting, understand it all in one article!
Quick comment in one sentence: MEME is in the stage of "volume shrinking and capital fleeing," with the price deviating over 20% from the value area. There may be a short-term rebound from overselling, but the bear market structure has not changed. Range guerrilla trading is better than trend betting.
—— Range Structure ——
1. Value Anchor: POC = 0.0020328 (peak transaction value), heavy selling pressure above.
2. High Volume Buffer:
• HVN1 0.0019930-0.0020428 (transaction 2.3-2.5B, UpVol ≈ 60%) — first rebound position downward.
• HVN2 0.0019631-0.0019731 (transaction 2.2B, UpVol ≈ 63%) — second rebound area.
3. Low Volume Void:
• LVN1 0.0016345-0.0016544 (transaction 1.5-2.6B, DownVol > 60%) — near the current price, easy to break through.
• LVN2 0.0016046-0.0016146 (transaction < 0.8B) — if it breaks down with volume, it will quickly slide to 0.00152.
4. 70% Value Area: 0.0018237-0.0021822; current price 0.001636 is already 10% away from the lower track and has entered the "oversold edge" in the short term.
—— Momentum Verification ——
• Recent HVN2 area UpVol 63%, short-term buying pressure still exists; however, UpVol above POC is only 48%, indicating weak rebounds.
• 1h Bollinger Band lower track 0.0016092, MA200 0.0018049, price -9.4% far from the average line, demand for deviation correction is rising.
• Contract holdings decreased by 3.18% in 24h, long-short ratio changed from 1.61 to 1.81, clear short positions increased, diverging from the price, beware of short squeezes.
—— Order Book Anomalies ——
Sell orders at 0.00369, 0.00782, 0.008, total exceeding 1.1 million USDT, upward liquidity vacuum; buying pressure is thin, only 0.001628-0.001632 has 8,000 USDT, short-term risk of flash crash.
—— Cycle Positioning ——
In the "mid to late stage of the bear market" oscillating downward phase, no reversal signal at a large scale, only doing oversold rebounds in the short term.
—— Trading Strategy (Quick In and Out) ——
Aggressive: Enter long if it retraces to LVN1 0.001634 without breaking and shows a 15m volume bullish candle (UpVol > 60%), stop loss at 0.001608 (LVN1 lower edge -0.5ATR), target HVN2 0.001968, risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.7:1.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to POC 0.0020328 to be resisted (DownVol > 55%) to short, stop loss at 0.002057 (POC +0.5ATR), target 0.0018237, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.6:1.
Risk Warning: If it breaks down with volume below 0.001604, all long positions should be stopped immediately, and reverse to short until 0.00152.