There is a bullish trend in Ethereum, but investors are cautious.

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has recovered by 9% from $3,355. However, especially due to ETF outflows, weak on-chain activity, and a lack of institutional demand, investors' confidence in bullish expectations remains limited.

What Do Derivative Data Say?

In ETH futures and the options market, the neutral to bearish trend still seems dominant. Spot ETF outflows are weakening investors' optimistic expectations that ETH will surpass the $3,800 level. Even if the price returns to $3,800 according to fundamental data, these dynamics hinder the sustainability of momentum.

TVL Decline Undermines Confidence

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi applications within the Ethereum ecosystem has decreased by 9% over the last 30 days, dropping to 23.8 million ETH. This decline indicates that users' interest is shifting to other platforms like Solana and BNB Chain. According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum still constitutes 59% of the total TVL, but the decline is a negative indicator for investor confidence.

Neutral Sentiment in the Options Market

The 25 delta put-call skew has reached approximately 6%. This rate increases when demand for put options decreases; the current rate indicates a balanced investor approach and shows that the bullish sentiment has not yet been fully adopted.

Institutional Demand Appears Weak

ETH prices are trading slightly discounted on platforms like Coinbase and Kraken compared to Binance and Bitfinex. This situation may indicate a decrease in demand from institutional investors. Although there was intense capital inflow towards spot ETFs in mid-July, there has been no significant influx recently. Particularly during the Wednesday to Friday period, ETF outflows reaching $129 million provide serious clues about weak institutional support.

What is the Technical Outlook?

The price of ETH is moving in parallel with the overall altcoin structure of the market. The $3,800 resistance level has formed a strong barrier. Without a clear catalyst, especially as global trade tensions and issues in the US labor market continue, ETH may not be able to maintain its bullish appearance.

In summary:

Although there has been a 9% recovery,

Weakness of ETFs and institutional demands,

Declining TVL and caution in option data,

It shows that strong catalysts for Ethereum to surpass the $3,800 level have not yet emerged.