Orange Analysis | Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads, direction will soon be chosen

Friends, BTC is now at a key point near 112,600. The next steps depend on one indicator - RSI. Let me break down two possible scenarios for you:

Scenario One: Technical Correction, looking towards $95,000

RSI has recently dropped below the 14-period SMA. Historically, this situation has occurred twice, and BTC corrected by 20%-30% both times.

If this round repeats history, around $95,000 would be a potential support area, and it’s the “reset area” we are focusing on - a good opportunity to pick up some chips.

Scenario Two: Confirming the Bottom, rebounding to $119,000

But don't rush to be bearish, there are two signals supporting rebound expectations:

1. The daily RSI shows a similar accumulation signal at the bottom as at the end of 2023, selling pressure is weakening;

2. The price makes a new low, but RSI does not, forming a typical bullish divergence, which is often a precursor to a reversal.

Analysts of Caleb Franzen's caliber have also said: there is potential for a rebound, just waiting for confirmation.

My View:

If 112,600 support holds + RSI divergence is confirmed, then we could see $119,000 this time;

But if sentiment reverses and selling pressure increases, once BTC loses support, the short-term target will have to be adjusted down to $95,000.

This is a watershed moment, with picking up money opportunities below and a breakout windfall above. My strategy is to keep a close eye on RSI, volume, and the 112,600 line; even if I'm not taking action, I will keep watching the market!