Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been unsettled, with two major events quietly rewriting market logic, compounded by the shadow of the 'August curse'; the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum are worth careful analysis:
One, two major macro events affecting market nerves
Hong Kong (stablecoin regulations) come into effect: not only affecting stablecoins but also impacting the entire cryptocurrency market.
Although the regulations mainly target stablecoins, the 'compliance signal' they convey will influence market sentiment— the clearer the compliance framework, the fewer concerns institutions have about entering the market. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, this is a long-term positive (compliance favors valuation improvement), but in the short term, it may trigger 'funds re-evaluating compliant targets', increasing volatility.Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations 'change': the 'barometer' for risk assets is shaking
Bitcoin and Ethereum, as typical risk assets, have their price trends highly tied to Federal Reserve policies. Recently, the market has shown divergence in expectations regarding 'interest rate cuts in 2025': if expectations for cuts rise, funds may be more willing to buy high-risk assets, leading to price increases; if expectations cool (such as a rebound in inflation), funds may withdraw, exacerbating declines.
Two, Bitcoin: The downward trend remains unchanged, will the 'August curse' come true?
Current status: Overall in a downward trend, the market is bearish. On the daily chart, $117 (this unit is assumed for simplification; actual values should be combined with specific cryptocurrency prices) was once a support level, and after breaking, it has become a 'short-term key resistance'—the price has attempted to break through several times without success, and downward momentum continues to accumulate.
Key levels: If the support at $116 is broken and remains below, it may further test the $114-$112 range; conversely, it must first break through the $117 resistance to relieve the downward pressure.
Historical curse: In the past 10 years, Bitcoin has only closed up 3 times in August, and 'August weakness' has become a psychological shadow for veteran players. Can this year break the curse? In the short term, the difficulty is not small.
Three, Ethereum: After breaking support, it encounters a key point; is the ETF positive news a 'lifeline'?
Current status: Both are weakening simultaneously, with a drop to $710 yesterday (assumed for simplification)—just at the daily support level, temporarily halting the decline.
Key battleground: The monthly chart shows that $760 is a short-term lifeline: if it can stabilize above $760 before the end of the month, it may alleviate bearish sentiment; otherwise, the short-term bearish trend is hard to change, or it may further test $600 or even lower.
Potential positive news: Nasdaq representative BlackRock has submitted an application to the SEC to include staking services in its Ethereum ETF. If approved, institutions can earn staking returns by holding the ETF, which may attract massive capital inflows, becoming the 'rebound engine' for Ethereum.
Four, subsequent market prediction: positive news is the key to breaking the deadlock
Bitcoin: If it cannot break through the resistance at $117 for a long time, it is likely to continue downward, with $114-$112 being an important observation range; if large institutions (such as Grayscale, BlackRock) suddenly increase their holdings, it may break the downward inertia.
Ethereum: Stabilizing at $760 is a prerequisite for a short-term stop to the decline; otherwise, there is a high probability of dropping to $600; if the SEC approves BlackRock's ETF staking application, it may become a 'strong catalyst' for a rebound.
Final reminder: The above is just personal analysis; the cryptocurrency market is volatile, so do not blindly follow trends. What is your opinion? Let's discuss in the comments.
Today's focus: GMX GNS PROM
