When the Bitcoin halving calendar is marked for the spring of 2024, the date of September 2025 becomes a collective thought in the crypto world — according to the pattern of 'peak 18 months after the halving,' the endpoint of the fourth wave bull market seems to be pinned here.

But old traders know well that the more people believe in cycles, the less effective they become, just like that bull market in 2021, which ended two months later than the 'script' suggested.

The peak of the bull market in 2013 is hidden within the hacker incident at the Mentougou Exchange; the end of the frenzy in 2017 bears the mark of the ICO bubble burst; the $69,000 in 2021 was backed by the residual heat of the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE.

The end of every bull market bears the imprint of the era; it is never simply 'it’s time to drop.' Now, institutional holdings account for 42%, and the scale of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust is 37 times that of 2017. These new variables have completely altered the formulas of the old cycles.

Some have dug up historical candlestick charts: 'Look, from 2015 to 2017 it was 24 months, and from 2019 to 2021 it was also 24 months, this time will definitely be the same.'

But they forget the black swan of March 2020 — the deep pit created by the pandemic delayed the bull market by a full six months. The market is like a mischievous child, always changing its mind just when you think you’ve figured it out; those who treat the calendar as a decree learned this lesson crying in the bear market of 2018.

Will there be a peak in September 2025? Perhaps yes, perhaps no. But what’s truly important is that you shouldn’t place all your bets on one date.

I’ve seen too many people going all-in six months early, waiting for the 'madness before the peak,' only to explode their positions during a mid-cycle pullback; I’ve also seen people stubbornly hold onto cycle theories, still believing 'it’s just a pullback' when the trend reverses, ultimately watching their profits evaporate.

The cycle in the crypto world is not a clockwork mechanism but a river woven from countless funds, policies, and emotions. It flows with inertia but can also be redirected by boulders or accelerated by storms.

What we can do is not predict the turning point, but prepare the paddles when the water is calm, and tighten the life jackets when the waves are raging.

When the market aunties start asking about Bitcoin again, when subway ads are replaced by blockchain projects, when the unrealized gains in your account are keeping you up at night — regardless of whether it’s September 2025, you should check your own heartbeat: is it greed that’s beating the drum, or reason that’s speaking?

Cycles may be late, may leave early, may don new clothes, but what will never disappear is the market's punishment for frenzy and its reward for reverence.

As for when the endpoint is? It’s better to look less at the calendar and more at what the market is saying.

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