The real question is not the probability but rather the timing (September or December). For the crypto markets, this could be a short-term catalyst.

According to BlockBeats, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly has indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, citing increasing evidence of a weakening job market and no signs of persistent tariff-induced inflation. Daly commented on the Federal Reserve's recent decision, stating, "I am willing to wait another cycle, but I cannot wait indefinitely."While this does not guarantee a rate cut in September, Daly mentioned, "I would tend to think that every meeting from now on is an immediate meeting for policy adjustments." She noted that two 25-basis-point rate cuts within the year still seem like an appropriate recalibration, emphasizing the importance of whether cuts occur in September and December, rather than if they will happen at all.Daly added, "If inflation resurges and spreads, or if the labor market heats up, fewer than two rate cuts could suffice, but it is more likely that more than two cuts will be necessary. If the labor market appears to be entering a weak phase without spillover effects from inflation, we should be prepared for more rate cuts."