The first week of August welcomes a key test

As August begins, the market faces new uncertainties.

On one hand, macroeconomic pressures in the United States are increasing: last week's employment data was weak, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum; on the other hand, trade tensions are heating up again. Trump announced a new round of 'reciprocal' tariffs that will take effect on August 7, and while trade negotiations have resumed, the review point on August 12 remains unresolved, leading to a noticeable decline in investor risk appetite.

This week, the key data the market is focusing on is the July PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data released on Monday and Tuesday, including the S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which will further reveal the true state of the U.S. economy. If the weak trend continues, it may bring more volatility to the market.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Kansas City conference, and investors will look for clues about whether there will be an interest rate cut in September. The unemployment claims data on Thursday is also worth noting, especially in the context of a weakening labor market.

In the U.S. stock market, tech stocks remain the focus. Companies like Palantir and AMD will report their earnings this week, and the continued advance of earnings season may once again drive overall volatility.

On the market front, there was a pullback last weekend, with Bitcoin falling to $112,000 at one point but then rebounding, currently back around $114,500. For ETH, it dipped to $3,400 over the weekend before rebounding to the $3,560 range. Overall, the start of August is under pressure, and historically this month is not a strong cycle.

In the short term, Bitcoin still needs to focus on whether the $112,000 support is stable and whether it can continue to stay above the 4-hour moving average pressure; ETH has temporarily returned to a range of fluctuations, and further guidance for clearer direction is still awaited.

For August trading, it is recommended to maintain flexibility in positions, pay attention to the impact of macro variables on market sentiment, avoid blindly chasing highs, and wait for clearer structural opportunities.

#特朗普计划宣布新美联储理事 #美联储利率决议 #加密市场反弹

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