📊 Cryptocurrency market panorama report | 2025.8.4

Core indicators anomaly

▫️ Total market cap $3.74 trillion (daily -6.6%, evaporated $260 billion)

▫️ Fear Index 65 (24h drop of 7 points, 'Greed → Neutral')

▫️ Derivative liquidation $950 million (long positions 90%, bears dominant)

🔥 [Extreme Divergence Sector | Pure Text Compilation]

📉 DeFi sector plummets

Representative project: SOL down 4.5%

Core logic: High-leverage agreements face liquidation wave impact

📉 Capital flight from payment coins

Representative project: XRP down 5%

Core logic: Institutions accelerating withdrawal from non-policy-supported assets

📈 SocialFi surges against the trend

Representative project: MEET48 surged 18.2%

Core logic: Fans consume over 48 million $IDOL tokens for voting

📈 New public chain policy dividend

Representative project: Conflux (CFX) surged 16.22%

Core logic: China's special support policy launched + Huawei Cloud strategic cooperation announced

💥 Key event deep deconstruction

1️⃣ Non-farm payroll nuclear explosion shockwave

U.S. revises non-farm payroll for May-June down to 258,000 (largest revision since 2008)

Only 73,000 new jobs added in July (expected 104,000), unemployment rate jumped to 4.1%

Market chain reaction:

→ Federal Reserve September rate cut probability 40% → 82% (CME data)

→ Dollar index plummets 1.37% (largest drop of the year)

→ US stock futures plunge, VIX fear index spikes 32%

2️⃣ ETF capital migration

■ Grayscale GBTC: 18 consecutive days of net outflow (total $3.62 billion)

■ BlackRock IBIT: single-day inflow of $150 million (but hard to resist selling pressure)

■ New physical settlement ETP: first week attracted $430 million (cost advantages highlighted)

3️⃣ Geopolitical powder keg

▫️ Trump's ultimatum to Russia: ceasefire by August 8

▫️ Tiered sanction tariff system:

Level 1 25% → India (Pilot tested)

Level 2 35% → Turkey

Level 3 50% → China

▫️ Congress recess hands over sanctions authority against Russia to the President's Office

👑 Capital battle of giants

▶ Whales retreat

Arthur Hayes liquidates:

2373 ETH ($8.3 million) + 776 million ENA ($4.65 million) + 388.6 billion PEPE ($580,000)

Warning: 'BTC may test 100k, tariffs trigger stagflation'

▶ Institutions buy the dip

Coinbase Q2 increased holdings by 2509 BTC ($298 million)

BlackRock holds firm 3.02 million ETH (ETF address zero outflow)

▶ Political shout-out

Eric Trump's tweet: 'Buy The Dip! Corrections are God-given opportunities to accumulate'

Trump team's on-chain increase of 560 ETH ($2 million)

⚖️ Global regulatory storm eye

🇭🇰 Hong Kong stablecoin iron fist

Selling stablecoins to retail investors without a license: fined 10 million HKD + 7 years imprisonment

Market reaction:

→ OTC still trading USDT (not yet regulated)

→ USDC off-exchange premium 1.7% (liquidity crisis)

🇨🇳 China’s dual-track policy

Loosening measures: Central Bank increases 200 billion relending to support tech companies

Tightening measures: starting August 8, restore 20% VAT on government bond interest

🇺🇸 SEC historic breakthrough

Physical settlement ETP launched: supports direct conversion of BTC/ETH to fund shares

Transaction friction costs down 37% (Goldman Sachs estimate)

🔍 Underlying currents on-chain

ETH staking liquidity improves: validator exit time 3.2 days (down 60% from peak), single-day new staking 82,000 (APY 4.1%)

Rise of stablecoin hegemony: quarterly trading volume $6 trillion (surpassing Visa's $5.8 trillion), compliant stablecoins account for 78% (USDT 43% + USDC 35%)

Ancient whales awaken: 5 2010 BTC wallets transfer 250 BTC (first movement after 15 years), suspected to be a 3% discount OTC trade

💎 Today's aphorism

When non-farm revisions tear the economic narrative apart, when dormant BTC awakens to leave —

The market reconstructs the value coordinate system in the ruins of data and on-chain fingerprints.