In July, the Bitcoin network experienced a historic moment as mining difficulty first broke through the 80T mark, reaching a historic high of 81.73T. However, blockchain data analysis shows that this value may undergo a technical adjustment of 3-5% in early August, providing miners with a rare operational adjustment window. Under the dual pressure of intensified computing power competition and halved block rewards, global miners are at a crossroads for strategic transformation.

One, the data map behind the computing power competition

The latest adjustment cycle of the Bitcoin network shows three key characteristics:

  • Computing power growth: The average computing power of the entire network in July reached 586 EH/s, a 37% increase since the beginning of the year

  • Difficulty rise: The cumulative adjustment in the past two months was 15.3%, the largest consecutive increase since 2022

  • Energy efficiency improvement: The average energy efficiency of the new generation of mining machines has reached 22J/TH, accelerating the wave of elimination

Analysts point out that the large-scale equipment upgrades of North American listed mining companies are the main reason for the surge in difficulty. Companies like Marathon Digital accounted for over 40% of the total network increase in computing power in the second quarter.

Two, the deeper logic behind the August difficulty adjustment

Multiple on-chain indicators suggest an upcoming adjustment:

  • Block interval extension: The average block time for the past 144 blocks reached 10 minutes and 12 seconds (the theoretical value is 10 minutes)

  • Miner income fluctuations: The average daily income of miners in July decreased by 11% compared to June, and some old mining machines have already reached shutdown prices

  • Electricity cost differentiation: Texas summer electricity prices peaked at $0.12/kWh, an increase of 80% compared to May

"This will be the first real test of miners' survival ability after the halving," emphasized a BTC.com analyst in a research report. It is estimated that when the difficulty decreases by 5%, the daily gross profit of the S19 series mining machines can rebound by 19%.

Three, strategic restructuring of the mining ecosystem

In response to market changes, leading mining companies have initiated three transformation paths:

  1. Device iteration battle: Bitfarms has invested $240 million to order next-generation mining machines, targeting energy efficiency at 18J/TH

  2. Energy arbitrage model: Riot Platforms has shifted 70% of its computing power to dynamic scheduling, fully utilizing price fluctuations in Texas

  3. Financialization of computing power: Multiple mining companies have launched computing power options products to hedge revenue risks

It is worth noting that this difficulty adjustment may bring about market chain reactions:

  • The transaction volume in the second-hand mining machine market surged 45% week-on-week

  • The empty block rate of major mining pools increased to 1.3% (the industry warning line is 2%)

  • The backlog of unconfirmed transactions on the entire network has dropped to its lowest level since March

Industry predictions: With the rebound of renewable energy generation in North America this autumn and the mass production of next-generation 3nm mining chips, the fourth quarter may see a new round of arms race in computing power. At that time, the Bitcoin network difficulty may break through the psychological barrier of 90T, further reshaping the competitive landscape of the mining industry.

Discussion topic: In the current market environment, what do you think miners should prioritize:
A) Betting on equipment upgrades to compete for market share in computing power

B) Shifting to flexible operations to optimize energy cost structure

C) Diversifying revenue streams and developing a comprehensive service provider model

We welcome industry practitioners and investors to share your views!