The excitement for altseason remains high, despite a broad altcoin rally two weeks ago that quickly dissipated into a wider market correction. While investors await a possible recovery from these price drops, popular analyst PlanD highlighted two crucial signals that may initiate a rise in the altcoin market.
**Ethereum and the USDT Market: Key to the Future of Altseason**
In a post on X on August 1st, PlanD shared a detailed technical analysis of several markets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and USDT Dominance. When studying the ETH market, PlanD highlights that the prominent altcoin faces significant resistance at $4,000, which has acted as the upper resistance level of a three-year symmetrical triangle. According to the analysis presented, Ethereum's ability to effectively maintain above the $4,000 price barrier is the first important developing situation for altseason. As the largest altcoin with a market value of $424.48 billion, a successful breakout beyond this familiar price ceiling would encourage a rally for lower-cap altcoins, potentially initiating an altseason.
Meanwhile, PlanD also draws attention to the USDT Dominance chart, which just registered the breakout of a bearish flag. Although there is potential to retest the breakout point at 4.71%, the analyst advises investors to monitor a possible drop to 3.81%, which aligns with the breakout of a 1.5-year descending triangle and 3.21%, that is, the price target of the bearish flag. In particular, PlanD states that a drop in USDT Dominance to 3.21%, suggesting a significant rotation of capital to other volatile assets, is the 'strongest signal' for an altcoin rally.
**Potential Risk of BTC.D Increasing for the Altcoin Market**
When analyzing the Bitcoin Dominance chart, PlanD observes that this metric has successfully tested a key support level twice in a three-year ascending wedge at 60.30%; therefore, there is intense potential for a rebound. The main analyst notes that if BTC.D rises to retest crucial market levels at 64.60% and 64.80%, the altcoin market may see an overall price loss ranging from 10% to 20%.
Meanwhile, PlanD also supports Bitcoin to maintain its optimistic shape in the coming weeks, with a projected price target of $160,000. Interestingly, the trading expert notes that there are two paths to this price, observing that Bitcoin may first find support at $113,000, driving a rebound beyond $118,700 and an eventual rise to $160,000. Alternatively, Bitcoin's current correction may stop around $108,000 before rising towards the specified bullish target. In this case, altcoins may also witness an initial widespread price decline of 10% to 20%.