Ethereum $4000 Countdown! The Truth Behind the Sudden Heavy Investment from Three Major Institutions
1. Funding Situation: Institutional Entry Accelerates, Market Structure Changes Significantly
Institutional Confidence Fully Recovers
In July, the net inflow into U.S. crypto ETFs reached a record $12.8 billion, with all ETFs, except for Grayscale, receiving capital inflows.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs contributed equally, marking a shift in institutional allocation from a “single-core” focus on Bitcoin to a “dual-core” approach, validating expectations for an Ethereum ETF explosion in the second half of the year.
Acceleration of Crypto Assets Becoming Mainstream
The capital inflow scale of crypto ETFs has surpassed that of traditional top ETFs, indicating that cryptocurrencies have officially entered the mainstream asset allocation framework, with Wall Street significantly lowering the participation threshold for retail investors through ETF tools.
2. Market Impact: Liquidity Spillover and Sector Rotation
Dual Engine Drive
Bitcoin: Continuous inflows may push the price to challenge the key resistance at $150,000;
Ethereum: Institutions are repositioning ETH as “Emerging Market Currency” (DeFi + Stablecoins + Staking Returns), and if exchange selling pressure continues to decrease, a breakout above $4000 is expected.
Associated Assets Rising
Crypto Stocks: MicroStrategy netted $10 billion from Bitcoin holdings, while Coinbase and mining stocks benefited indirectly from ETF funds;
Altcoins: SOL, SUI, and others will unlock $3 billion in tokens in August; if sentiment is high, funds may speculate on “low circulation high potential” projects.
3. Risk Signals: Under Currents amid the Celebration
Derivatives Volatility
At the end of July, over $7 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, which may trigger short-term shocks; GBTC net redemptions in a single day indicate some profit-taking.
Concerns Over Cycle Peaks
Global M2 data suggests Bitcoin may peak in September;
ETH daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, and if it repeats the May pullback trend, the upward momentum may slow.
4. Shenlong Conclusion
Short-term view on Ethereum: If ETH holds above the $3000 support, the probability of breaking above $4000 increases significantly.
Medium-term focus on capital flow speed: Daily average inflows into ETFs need to maintain above $300 million to support bull market resilience; falling below this level would warrant caution for a pullback.
Shenlong Strategy:
Track BTC/ETH ETF capital flows daily;
Be cautious of significant unlocks and option expiration selling pressure for SOL and SUI in August.
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