#加密项目 Based on recent market dynamics and technological advancements, the following is an analysis of the core cryptocurrency track trends for the upcoming year (August 2025 – August 2026):
### 🔄 1. **Market Cycles and Institutional Involvement**
- **Altcoin Recovery Imminent**: The altcoin market has stabilized after a 60% correction, with technical structures resembling the 2020–2021 cycle, indicating that 2025–2026 will enter a "Mega Altseason" where funds may rotate into mid and small-cap tokens.
- **Bitcoin Cycle Transformation**: The traditional 4-year up and down cycle is weakened due to institutional involvement (e.g., ETF fund inflows) and improved regulations (e.g., the "GENIUS Act"), with 2026 possibly initiating a "steady growth" mode rather than extreme volatility. However, short-term technical warnings suggest BTC may face a 50% correction to $60,000 (early 2026).
### ⚙️ 2. **Technological Innovation and Integration Trends**
- **AI + Crypto Explosion**: Decentralized AI models (e.g., Bittensor), on-chain agents (e.g., Fetch.ai), and computing power networks (e.g., Render) are the hottest tracks, with the market size exceeding $21 billion in 2025 and an annual growth rate of 28.9%. Applications focus on DeFi automation, compliance tools, and multi-agent DAO governance.
- **RWA (Real Asset Tokenization) Scaling**: The RWA market led by the U.S. sees financing surge by 230% this year, potentially exceeding $10 trillion. Tokenization accelerates in U.S. Treasury (Ondo Finance), private credit (Maple), and real estate, with compliance platform XBIT relying on ZKP technology becoming a trading hub.
- **Public Chain Verticalization and Cross-Chain Integration**: General Layer2 declines, while vertical chains (e.g., AI custom chains, DeFi dedicated chains) rise; Cardano and others advance zero-knowledge proofs and cross-chain interoperability (bridging Ethereum/Solana), enhancing privacy and liquidity.
### ⚖️ 3. **Regulation and Compliance Double-Edged Sword**
- The U.S. SEC partially exempts RWA tokens from securities regulations, but XRP and others remain burdened by litigation, suppressing short-term gains.
- The EU's MiCA 2.0 draft requires AI systems to be interpretable, while Singapore recognizes the legal status of on-chain agents, promoting compliance innovation.
### 💡 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**
- **Focus on Tracks**: AI infrastructure ( ), RWA leaders ( ), vertical public chains (Cardano ecosystem).
- **Avoid Risks**: RWA projects without real asset backing, general Layer2 tokens, and assets entangled in lawsuits (e.g., XRP should wait for the 2026 cycle low point).
