#creatorpad The latest analysis by Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos is quite interesting! Over the past three months, U.S. employment data has clearly hit the brakes, and this may be more important than it seems on the surface. I carefully pondered several key points in his article: Originally, the Fed bigwigs felt that maintaining high interest rates was quite solid, but then the employment data for May and June was suddenly revised downward—just like you think you have a deposit in your account, only to find out you’ve miscalculated during reconciliation—this directly shook their confidence.

Powell's remarks also contain hidden meanings. He said that the seemingly stable unemployment rate might be a "smoke screen," and that the labor market has already started to "quietly" fall apart. This sounds like technical analysis, but in plain language, it means: if the job market really weakens, there would be a legitimate reason to cut interest rates. The market is closely watching the September FOMC meeting, especially since if July's non-farm payroll data is disappointing, the probability of a rate cut could skyrocket.

However, there are still variables in this matter. I noticed that Timiraos particularly emphasized the word "may"—the people at the Fed are best at playing the "let the data speak" game. Right now, inflation has not been fully tamed, and if employment picks up again in July and August, the script could change immediately. But that said, the average new jobs added over the past three months have already dropped to 170,000, which is more than a halving compared to last year.