'In 1982, starting with a principal of 300,000, I faced liquidation and pitfalls, ultimately climbing to 42 million. It wasn't luck, nor 'news', the core weapon lies within the unchanging 2 hours of daily review - a system review method that continuously 'corrects' and 'evolves'. Today, I will share everything from the bottom of my box, detailing how professional players survive and win in the brutal cryptocurrency arena through review.'
Why is reviewing more important than trading time? Because the market changes rapidly, what you understood in the morning may be outdated by evening. Professional players force themselves to take 2 hours daily: first, spend half an hour like a robot recording data (forget about profits and losses! Forget about positions!), then completely clear the mind, releasing all subjective obsessions and emotional anchors from the day. Only then do they revisit the market with a 'blank slate', drawing open-ended conclusions. I call this process 'Cognitive Reboot'. Countless times, at the end of the evening review, I would fiercely deny a certain 'firm' view I held during the day - and this is precisely the key to avoiding major losses and seizing significant opportunities!
One, Multi-Dimensional Review System: From 'Pulse' to 'Strategy' (Layered Execution, Efficient Precision)
Intra-Day Real-Time Review (Every hour, <10 minutes/session, efficient scanning)
Market Pulse Monitoring (Quick Sweep):
Volatility Scan: Focus on BTC/ETH 1-hour ATR changes >5%. Practical tip: Set ATR% change alerts in TradingView, get mobile vibrations to remind you to stop and analyze the reasons immediately (Is it breaking news? Key level breakout?).
Cross-Exchange Price Difference Alert: Binance/OKX/Bybit main contracts' premium suddenly expanded >0.3%? Act immediately: This may indicate a short squeeze/long liquidation, or an arbitrage opportunity! Open cross-exchange hedging window to prepare.
Liquidation Heatmap Focus: Concentrated liquidation price points on CoinGlass exceeding $5 million in a single hour. Practical tip: These price levels are natural 'magnetic zones', and prices tend to be tested repeatedly. Consider placing orders slightly away from these dense areas to avoid being swept.
Position Emergency Check (Must Do):
Leverage Health Quick Calculation: Mental calculation/small tool to determine what percentage decline in current price would hit your liquidation price? Practical iron rule: If a decline of <2% poses danger, immediately reduce positions or hedge! Don't harbor any illusions.
Hedging Efficiency Quick Check: Perpetual contract funding rate and spot price difference. Arbitrage opportunity? When absolute value of rate >0.1% and direction is favorable, consider opening an arbitrage position (if rate is positive and high, go long in spot + short in contracts).
End-of-Day Deep Review (1-2 hours daily, golden time)
Three-Dimensional Order Flow Analysis (Core): Not just looking at price candlesticks, but also looking at:
Volume Distribution: Where is the volume? Is it a real breakout or a trap? (Use Volume Profile tool)
Large Order Flow (L2 Data/Time & Sales): Is there more aggressive buying/selling at key levels or more limit orders? Practical tip: Pay attention to large aggressive orders appearing near key support/resistance levels, as they often signal a change in trend.
Key Decision Audit (Core Error Correction):
Open/Close Trigger Comparison: Planned technical levels (like EMA50, Fibonacci) VS Actual execution points. Deviation >0.5%? Must be written into the error log: Was it a slip? FOMO? Or is there a problem with the plan itself?
Slippage Cost Statistics: For large orders >10 BTC, how much does the actual average execution price differ from the expected price? Practical optimization: Splitting large orders into smaller ones + using iceberg orders/TWAP strategy can significantly reduce slippage. Record each slippage cost, review the total at month-end, it's astonishing!
Sentiment Thermometer (Contrarian Indicator):
Extreme Long/Short Ratio: Deribit positions PCR<0.7 (extreme greed) or >1.3 (extreme fear). Practical strategy: When PCR is extremely deviated, combining it with price position increases the success rate of contrarian operations (but strict stop-loss is necessary!).
Greed and Fear Index Verification: When the index >75 or <25, be sure to check the candlestick patterns! Is it a top distribution pattern (long upper shadow, cloud cover) or a bottom panic pattern (long lower shadow, hammer)? Sentiment indicators must be verified with price!
Weekly Strategic Review (3-4 hours each week, set direction)
Macroeconomic Factor Reevaluation (Look Up at the Sky):
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations: CME FedWatch tool probability changes >20%? This usually triggers large volatility! Practical correlation: Shift in interest rate expectations to easing -> bullish for risk assets (especially altcoins); shift to tightening -> bearish.
Stablecoin Battlefield: A weekly change of ±1% in total supply of USDT/USDC is an important liquidity signal. Continuous net increase? Potential incremental funds; continuous net decrease? Beware of liquidity contraction. Practical tip: Pay attention to Circle's (USDC issuer) monthly reserve report, especially the maturity structure and credit ratings of treasury holdings.
Sector Rotation Map (Capital Flow):
Quantitative Analysis: Use CoinGecko or TradingView sector indices to calculate the relative strength of sectors like DeFi, AI, Meme, Layer2 over the past week. Practical strategy: Sectors with continuous inflows of capital are key areas to explore next week; sectors with continuous outflows should be avoided in the short term.
Risk Event Traceability (Learning from Past Mistakes):
In-depth Attribution: For example, 'Wednesday Crash' should not just be 'Coinbase outage + GBTC outflow', but dig deeper: How long was the outage? How many users were affected? Is GBTC outflow normal or abnormal? Are there any other chain reactions (like lending platform liquidations)? Build your own 'Black Swan Event Library' and summarize response templates.
Two, Cryptocurrency Specific Review Toolkit: Armed to the Teeth
On-chain Scout (Insights into Whales and Network Status):
Glassnode Alerts (Must-Have): NUPL > 0.6 (market entering the 'greed' profit zone, beware of pullbacks) or aSOPR < 1 (market overall losses, possibly nearing a phase bottom). Practical settings: Email + mobile push notifications for immediate response.
Nansen Smart Money Tracking (Follow the Whales): Record the largest/most directional operations of addresses marked as 'Smart Money' or 'Whale' this week (which coin? Quantity?). Practical tip: Pay attention to whether their actions diverge from price trends (whales buying while price drops? Selling while price rises? Worth pondering).
Derivatives Diagnosis Tool (Insights into Market Structure and Leverage):
Deribit Skew Index & Maturity Structure: When there is a significant inversion (near month below far month), take a screenshot! This often indicates strong bearish sentiment in the short term. Combining with extreme PCR values is even better.
Open Interest (OI) Spike Alert: OI daily increase >15%, especially at key price points (like previous highs/lows, round numbers). This usually indicates a new trend may start or an existing trend may accelerate! Highlight the price at which this occurs.
Sentiment Compass (Capture Market FOMO/FUD):
Twitter Sentiment Hot Words Monitoring: Use TradingView Pine Script or third-party tools to monitor keywords like 'FUD', 'BTFD', 'Rug Pull', 'Moon' in specific cryptocurrencies or broad market-related tweets for frequency and trend changes. Practical correlation: A surge in 'FUD' with no significant price drop -> possible oversold rebound opportunity; a flood of 'Moon' with stagnant high prices -> dangerous signal!
Google Trends Verification: Search for terms like 'Cryptocurrency crash', observe sudden peaks in regional search volume, and compare with price trends at that time. Practical insight: Peaks in search volume lagging behind price lows often signify retail panic selling, possibly nearing short-term bottoms.
Three, Cognitive Upgrade Closed-Loop System: Alchemy from Mistakes
Error Log Template (Forced Honesty): Never write just 'I lost money today'.
Simulation Checklist (Plans Equate to Survival): Practice at least once a week
Black Swan Rehearsal:
Scenario: 'Binance suddenly suspends withdrawals for 24 hours'. Response:
Immediately check the availability and price differences on other exchanges (OKX, Bybit, Bitget).
Assess the leverage risk of positions: If there are high-leverage contracts on Binance, can you quickly open a reverse hedge position on other platforms?
Are stablecoins trapped? Are there off-exchange OTC channels available?
Plan: Diversify asset holdings (no more than 20% on a single exchange); maintain accounts with different exchanges and complete KYC; understand major off-exchange groups.
Liquidity Crisis Test:
Scenario: 'USDC unpegs to 0.9 again'. Response:
Immediately start the stablecoin exchange monitoring script (monitor USDC/USDT prices on DEXs like Curve/Uniswap and CEX off-exchange prices).
Execute preset arbitrage strategies (like buying USDC on DEX when the discount >3%, while selling or converting to USDT/BUSD on a supporting CEX).
Check collateralized lending positions: If using USDC as collateral, beware of liquidation risks, prepare to supplement collateral or repay.
Plan: Hold some non-correlated assets (like BTC, ETH); set higher collateral ratios in lending protocols; write automated arbitrage scripts on standby.
Four, Practical Case Studies: Review and Evolution During the March 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Crisis
Data Capture (Key Signals at the Time):
On-chain Evidence: Arkham data shows USDC net outflow exceeded $4.2 billion in a single day (panic redemption).
Price Crash: USDC/USDT off-exchange trading discount once reached -8% (credit collapsed instantly).
Chain Reaction: DAI (primarily backed by USDC) saw a discount to 0.98; lending platforms (like Aave) experienced soaring USDC pool utilization and skyrocketing interest rates.
Decision Backtrack (Gains and Losses):
Correct: Keenly captured DAI's 0.98 discount, decisively bought DAI on DEX (equivalent to 0.98 USDC cost), while selling/repaying debt at 1:1 value on a supporting CEX (or within the protocol), achieving nearly 2% risk-free arbitrage. Key: Understanding stablecoin mechanisms and arbitrage pathways.
Major Mistake: Failed to set a limit order for stablecoin exchange in advance! When USDC plummeted, manual operations faced huge slippage and delays, missing the best arbitrage opportunity, and suffering significant losses on some exchanges.
Strategy Optimization (Rules Learned from Hard Lessons):
Automated Arbitrage Trigger: Write scripts to monitor stablecoin price differences (USDC/USDT, DAI/USDC, etc.) across major DEXs and CEXs. When off-exchange discount >3%, automatically execute pre-set cross-exchange/DEX arbitrage operations (consider gas fees and execution risks). Practical tool: Learn to use Python (ccxt library) or paid automation tools.
Establish 'Stablecoin Issuer Risk Dashboard': Continuous monitoring:
Maturity structure of U.S. Treasury held by Circle (is it mostly short-term? Avoid interest rate risk).
Credit ratings of U.S. Treasury and custodian information.
Frequency and transparency of reserve report releases.
Associated Bank Risks: Establish simplified monitoring of the financial health of major banks (especially those partnered with Circle) (stock price volatility? CDS spread widening? News and public sentiment).
Five, Self-Discipline Management Tips: Ensuring Sustainable Review
Energy Allocation Golden Rule:
Intra-day Review ≤ 20% of Total Daily Trading Time! Beware of 'analysis paralysis', the core of intra-day is executing the plan and risk control. Deep thinking is reserved for the end of the day.
Physical Blocking Method: Use a kitchen timer/mobile focus mode to strictly limit daily review time (like 2 hours). When time is up, force yourself to stop! Avoid getting caught up in endless details.
Data Desensitization Training (Counteracting Result Bias):
Select one day each week for 'Blind Review': Hide the profit and loss columns in review software/tables. Analyze independently based only on price, indicators, on-chain data, and news, and write down conclusions. Then compare with actual profit/loss, see if results influenced objective analysis. The effect is remarkable!
Cross-Market Verification (Broaden Horizons):
Monthly Required Course: Compare the volatility (VIX) of Gold (GC), S&P 500 Index (SPX) with BTC volatility. Practical insight: When traditional market volatility (VIX) surges while BTC volatility remains relatively low, beware of risk spillover; when BTC volatility spikes independently, it may harbor independent market opportunities. Pay attention to changes in correlation coefficients.
Top Traders' Review Mantra:
The core of review is not tirelessly searching for the next get-rich-quick code, but ruthlessly eliminating one source of loss after another in your account. When you open the error log and find that there have been no new records for three consecutive weeks, congratulations, that is the moment of true transformation and advancement. In the cryptocurrency space, doing fewer stupid things is more effective than doing more 'smart things' to survive and make money. Follow me @加密大师兄888 .
