In a post shared on TradingView, cryptocurrency analyst Xanrox argues that the current bull cycle is about to end, pointing to a potential downtrend that could see Bitcoin's price drop to $60,000. This analysis comes amid Bitcoin trading in a very stagnant phase, prompting many traders and cryptocurrency analysts to start reassessing the next direction of this coin.

Xanrox Predicts Bitcoin Peaks at $122,000 and Drops to $60,000

The world's largest cryptocurrency has hovered around the price of $118,000 for the past few days, struggling to decisively break through this zone while showing no significant signs of collapse. Despite this consolidation, market sentiment remains optimistic.

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index continues to show "greed," and most analysts still believe that Bitcoin is preparing for another price surge. However, an intriguing technical outlook is challenging this optimistic consensus and issuing a collapse warning.

Notably, cryptocurrency analyst Xanrox has identified a sell signal on the weekly candle timeframe chart after Bitcoin reached the Fibonacci extension of 1.618 and touched the long-term trend line of 2017–2021–2025, with the latest trend line touch aligning with Bitcoin's recent all-time high of $122,800.

According to him, the most recent touch of this trend line could be the peak of the current cycle. Furthermore, he notes that the Elliott wave structure has now completed Wave 5 of the ascending wedge pattern, and a larger impulsive Wave 5 move is imminent. Thus, a correction phase is about to begin.

What Will Happen Next to Bitcoin?

As shown in the chart below, the next major move could be a decrease of at least 50%, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000 by 2026. This forecast is based on prior price movements when Bitcoin dropped 84% and 77% after hitting trend lines in 2017 and 2021.

The technical setup also aligns with statistical data showing that August and September typically bring increased selling pressure. Xanrox notes that while traders may wait for further confirmation, such as breaking the 50-week moving average, he personally believes that the peak has occurred. Large institutions and professional investors pay close attention to the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages.

The outlook of Xanrox is completely opposite to the general sentiment of cryptocurrency investors. The current structure of Bitcoin continues to show strength on higher timeframes, and some other analysts suggest that the recent consolidation between $117,000 and $119,000 is a foundation to continue towards $130,000 and beyond.

The lack of significant selling volume, the company maintaining prices above $118,000 and the 50-week moving average, along with bullish indicators on altcoins like Ethereum, are on-chain signals suggesting that Bitcoin still has plenty of room to rise before reaching a peak price in this cycle.